Welterweight action fighter Vicente “The Silent Assassin” Luque (18-7, 10 KOs, 6 KOs) meets Jamaica’s Randy Brown (12-3, 6 KOs, 4 SUBs) at UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Shahbazyan this Saturday, August 1, 2020 at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. The matchup takes place on the main card headlined by a middleweight contest featuring Derek Brunson (20-7, 11 KOs, 3 SUBs) and undefeated uber-prospect Edmen Shahbazyan (11-0, 9 KOs, 1 SUB). The main card airs live on ESPN starting 9 pm ET.
We’ve got the main and co-main covered in separate articles, so let’s break down the action between Luque and Brown. The UFC odds at BookMaker.eu opened with Luque at -180, with Brown at +143 on the comeback.
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Vicente Luque (18-7, 10 KOs, 6 KOs)
We are just starting to get an idea of how good Luque is - and it’s about time. Despite being a consistently entertaining action fighter, the Brazilian just can’t seem to get promotional buy-in. It took a six-fight winning streak to get a high-profile matchup against Stephen Thompson, which the 28-year old lost by unanimous decision. He’s since bounced back with a win in a rematch against Niko Price. Currently ranked No. 12 in a stacked division, Luque has the talent to be a perennial top 7 guy - he just has to take the long route to get there.
Part of what makes Luque so fun to watch is his willingness to chase high-risk, high reward maneuvers. Whether that’s all-out brawling for a few minutes or chasing submissions from the clinch and scramble, Luque’s method is madness - and it usually works. But it’s also made some fights much, much harder than it should have been. Somebody as skilled and athletic as Luque does not have to get into a trench war with Mike Perry, and going toe-to-toe with Bryan Barberena is not the best gameplan for success.
Luque is going to bring a ton of pressure against Brown, and oddsmakers obviously feel that he’s going to have success doing so.
Randy Brown (12-3, 6 KOs, 4 SUBs)
Brown was signed to the UFC as a raw talent in 2016 and has been allowed to develop inside the cage. Obviously, he’s got great physical tools - but he just is finally starting to live up to his promise. After a loss to Niko Price in 2018, the Jamaican has reeled off two wins, TKO the extremely tough Barberena and submitting a very good Brazilian prospect in Warlley Alves. Luque would be the biggest win of his career, and would put “Rude Boy” into the top 15 rankings for the first time. That could mean big things for the 30-year old.
There is a lot to like about Brown to the naked eye. For starters, he is a huge welterweight at 6’3”, and he’s an excellent athlete as well - there aren’t many guys in this weight class that can bully him. In this matchup, he’ll stand four inches taller than Luque, giving him longer range than his opponent. Additionally, Brown appears to have a plus gas tank, as he’s looked fresh in later rounds in recent fights. If he brings it all together, Brown profiles as a top-12 guy.
Brown has been hovering around the +150 range, making him a moderate underdog. We don’t disagree with that sentiment, as Luque is proven against much better competition.
Significant Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Luque 5.66 / Brown 3.41
Striking accuracy: Luque 53% / Brown 47%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Luque 5.79 / Brown 2.42
Striking defense: Luque 52% / Brown 55%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Luque 0.73 / Brown 0.95
Takedown accuracy: Luque 50% / Brown 46%
Takedown defense: Luque 65% / Brown 71%
Submission average: Luque 0.8 / Brown 0.6
UFC Picks
If Brown is hovering around this price, we recommend taking a chance. Luque is a wild dude, but he also has a habit of gassing himself out - which is where the bigger Brown will have a chance to take control of this fight. Rude Boy has the size and speed to hang with Luque, and we’ll lean on his more patient style to take the decision.
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Shahbazyan Card & Odds
Middleweight - Derek Brunson +262 vs. Edmen Shahbazyan -330
Middleweight - Eric Spicely +162 vs. Markus Perez -196
Welterweight - Randy Brown +154 vs. Vicente Luque -186
Bantamweight - Frankie Saenz +203 vs. Jonathan Martinez -250
Bantamweight - Nathan Maness +186 vs. Ray Borg -228
Women’s flyweight - Jennifer Maia +136 vs. Joanne Calderwood -165
Middleweight - Teving Giles +172 vs. Kevin Holland -208
Lightweight - Bobby Green +120 vs. Lando Vannata -144
Midddleweight - Ed Herman +150 vs. Gerald Meerschaert -181
Featherweight - Jamall Emmers +134 vs. Timur Valiev -162
Bantamweight - Cody Durden +263 vs. Chris Gutierrez -332
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