You’ve asked the question before: what would happen if you just bet every favorite on a card? Would you find yourself in the red, or would you walk away with some cash in your pocket?
For all you curious sports bettors, we’re taking a look at the top 10 cards of 2018 for favorites and analyzing how much you would have won if you had bet $100 on each. There wasn’t a single card where every favorite hit, but it was close on a few occasions.
You’ll see a massive variance from the best card to the worst, which should give you the answer to the questions at the beginning of this post: don’t blindly bet. The best thing you can do is look at all the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu, including the prop bets, and pick and choose the best values. This is the part where we plug the fact that we put out detailed betting previews during fight week.
Don’t think that all your options are done after you’ve made a bet either. Live UFC betting at BookMaker.eu is a great way to hedge your bets or even make completely new ones based on the action that’s unfolding.
So let’s jump right into the top 10, shall we?
UFC Betting at BookMaker.eu
1. UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Moraes
Favorite wins: 11 / Underdog wins: 1
Profit based on $100 favorites: +$440
2. UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2
Favorite wins 11 / Underdog wins: 2
Profit based on $100 favorites: +$376.82
3. UFC Fight Night: Korean Zombie vs. Yair Rodriguez
Favorite wins: 10 / Underdog wins: 2
Profit based on $100 favorites: +$308.54
4. UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Brunson 2
Favorite wins: 10 / Underdog wins: 2
Profit based on $100 favorites: +$347.91
5. The Ultimate Fighter 28 Finale
Favorite wins: 10 / Underdog wins: 2
Profit based on $100 favorites: +$229.79
6. UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs. Oleinik
Favorite wins: 10 / Underdog wins: 2
Profit based on $100 favorites: +$78.90
7. UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington
Favorite wins: 10 / Underdog wins: 3
Profit based on $100 favorites: +$167.42
8. UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Usman
Favorite wins: 9 / Underdog wins: 3
Profit based on $100 favorites: +$40.74
9. UFC 221: Romero vs. Rockhold
Favorite wins: 8 / Underdog wins: 3
Profit based on $100 favorites: +$118.40
10. UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Tuivasa
Favorite wins: 8 / Underdog wins: 3
Profit based on $100 favorites: -$26.90
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The most profitable card of the night is UFC Fight Night 131 on June 1, which had 11 favorites win against one underdog. This was a great night to bet the favorites, boosted by the fact that there were six who had odds better than -200.
UFC 225 one week later saw 10 favorites win in 12 fights. Five favorites were -150 or higher, which propped up the ROI for an excellent $376 payout had you played $100 on all the favorites. Of course, that means you would’ve had $1200 at stake.
The No. 10 card - UFC Fight Night 142 - actually would’ve lost you money despite the fact that eight favorites won compared to three underdogs. That’s because there were huge favorites on this card, like Sodiq Yusuff at -600, Alexey Kunchenko at -325, Kai Kara France -410, Christos Giagos at -361 and Damir Ismagulov at -500. Prices like that will shrink your earnings, and two heavy underdogs in Shogun Rua ( +415 ) and Paul Craig ( +245 ) winning shrank that even further.
The lesson here is that if you’re betting favorites, try and stick to the guys that are -150 or higher for straight plays. Betting on dudes that are huge favorites really isn’t worth your time, as you have to pay way too much to get too little back. Anything more than -300 you really should be considering as a parlay booster.
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