In the past few years, we’re starting to see an interesting trend when it comes to online UFC betting. The fight goes/doesn’t go to decision bet hits the sportsbooks before the over/under. Before, BookMaker.eu would list fighter money lines first, then the over/under, with other prop bets being listed a few days before the fight starts.
But these days, the order is now money lines > fight goes/doesn’t go to decision > over/under plus prop bets. Still, the over/under is what draws more action - probably because it’s a bet that’s been in place since sports betting was a thing. But the rise over the decision bet is rising, and we see it as a much better bet.
For starters, it’s an easier pick. “Over/under 2.5 rounds” can be confusing to casual bettors, especially since the line is drawn at the 2:30 mark of the third round. Any bet on the under means that the fight has to end sometime before that, and betting the over means that the fight must extend past 2:31 of round three. The over/under at 1.5 rounds is saved for aggressive fighters, and it draws the line at 2:30 of the second round.
But betting whether the fight does or doesn’t go to decision is exactly how it sounds. It’s a black and white pick that’s as easy as picking the winner. This is especially helpful for guys like Derrick Lewis and Max Holloway, who usually finish their fights in the third. In Lewis’ case, he’s notches finishes with 10 seconds left in some of his fights. Holloway is known for turning up the volume in the third round, like the MMA version of the Golden State Warriors.
We generally like the fight goes to decision pick when it comes to lighter weight classes. These are weight classes where fighters typically have excellent cardio and lesser knockout power. Obviously, this comes into play a lot with women’s strawweight fights. But this isn’t just our opinion - it’s been statistically proven. We’ve pulled the stats from Fight Matrix, which actually broke down the percentages of how often a fight goes to decision by weight class.
FightMatrix Decision Percentages
Heavyweight: 23.9% (627 total fights)
Light heavyweight: 35.3% (546 total fights)
Middleweight: 38.5% (685 total fights)
Welterweight: 46.1% (971 total fights)
Lightweight: 48.7% (952 total fights)
Featherweight: 53.9% (432 total fights)
Bantamweight: 49.2% (362 total fights)
Flyweight: 58.5% (183 total fights)
Women’s featherweight: 45.5% (11 total fights)
Women’s bantamweight: 54.6% (108 total fights)
Women’s flyweight: 63.6% (44 total fights)
Women’s strawweight: 68.7% (131 total fights)
Of course, we can throw out the stats for women’s featherweight, which isn’t barely a division and doesn’t have a large enough sample size to count. There are slightly more finishes at men’s bantamweight than at men’s featherweight, but for the most part it holds true that the bigger fighters finish at a higher rate.
Obviously, that makes betting that a fight goes to decision a volatile pick at heavyweight, where less than a quarter of fights actually get to the scorecards. In a division where every fighter has the size and power to knock out their opponent, about half of the fights have ended in TKO. Of course, that usually means the payout for this bet at heavyweight usually pays out more. Betting that a Francis Ngannou matchup goes to decision is risky, but it’ll usually pay out at least 2-1.
Another thing, don’t look at this chart and figure that betting every women’s fight to go to decision will be profitable. Often, the payouts will be too small to really net you a return worth anything. We’ve done articles on what would happen if you bet the favorite every fight, and even in cases where 11 of 12 favorites hit, the total payout would’ve been something like $300 for putting $100 on every favorite. That’s just not worth it.
Bet on UFC odds online at BookMaker.eu
Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker sportsbook! Real-time spreads, totals, props and money line are all available so start betting with BookMaker today.
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UFC Odds - Betting the over/under vs. fight goes/doesn’t go to decision
By Abe Chong
In the past few years, we’re starting to see an interesting trend when it comes to online UFC betting. The fight goes/doesn’t go to decision bet hits the sportsbooks before the over/under. Before, BookMaker.eu would list fighter money lines first, then the over/under, with other prop bets being listed a few days before the fight starts.
But these days, the order is now money lines > fight goes/doesn’t go to decision > over/under plus prop bets. Still, the over/under is what draws more action - probably because it’s a bet that’s been in place since sports betting was a thing. But the rise over the decision bet is rising, and we see it as a much better bet.
For starters, it’s an easier pick. “Over/under 2.5 rounds” can be confusing to casual bettors, especially since the line is drawn at the 2:30 mark of the third round. Any bet on the under means that the fight has to end sometime before that, and betting the over means that the fight must extend past 2:31 of round three. The over/under at 1.5 rounds is saved for aggressive fighters, and it draws the line at 2:30 of the second round.
But betting whether the fight does or doesn’t go to decision is exactly how it sounds. It’s a black and white pick that’s as easy as picking the winner. This is especially helpful for guys like Derrick Lewis and Max Holloway, who usually finish their fights in the third. In Lewis’ case, he’s notches finishes with 10 seconds left in some of his fights. Holloway is known for turning up the volume in the third round, like the MMA version of the Golden State Warriors.
We generally like the fight goes to decision pick when it comes to lighter weight classes. These are weight classes where fighters typically have excellent cardio and lesser knockout power. Obviously, this comes into play a lot with women’s strawweight fights. But this isn’t just our opinion - it’s been statistically proven. We’ve pulled the stats from Fight Matrix, which actually broke down the percentages of how often a fight goes to decision by weight class.
FightMatrix Decision Percentages
Heavyweight: 23.9% (627 total fights)
Light heavyweight: 35.3% (546 total fights)
Middleweight: 38.5% (685 total fights)
Welterweight: 46.1% (971 total fights)
Lightweight: 48.7% (952 total fights)
Featherweight: 53.9% (432 total fights)
Bantamweight: 49.2% (362 total fights)
Flyweight: 58.5% (183 total fights)
Women’s featherweight: 45.5% (11 total fights)
Women’s bantamweight: 54.6% (108 total fights)
Women’s flyweight: 63.6% (44 total fights)
Women’s strawweight: 68.7% (131 total fights)
Of course, we can throw out the stats for women’s featherweight, which isn’t barely a division and doesn’t have a large enough sample size to count. There are slightly more finishes at men’s bantamweight than at men’s featherweight, but for the most part it holds true that the bigger fighters finish at a higher rate.
Obviously, that makes betting that a fight goes to decision a volatile pick at heavyweight, where less than a quarter of fights actually get to the scorecards. In a division where every fighter has the size and power to knock out their opponent, about half of the fights have ended in TKO. Of course, that usually means the payout for this bet at heavyweight usually pays out more. Betting that a Francis Ngannou matchup goes to decision is risky, but it’ll usually pay out at least 2-1.
Another thing, don’t look at this chart and figure that betting every women’s fight to go to decision will be profitable. Often, the payouts will be too small to really net you a return worth anything. We’ve done articles on what would happen if you bet the favorite every fight, and even in cases where 11 of 12 favorites hit, the total payout would’ve been something like $300 for putting $100 on every favorite. That’s just not worth it.
Bet on UFC odds online at BookMaker.eu
Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker sportsbook! Real-time spreads, totals, props and money line are all available so start betting with BookMaker today.
