UFC Odds - When to Parlay Your Bet

UFC Odds - When to Parlay Your Bet

Parlay betting is not a long term option. It’s a tactic used mostly by recreational gamblers who get sucked into get-rich-quick pull. We get it - it’s extremely tempting to lay down small to win big. A $20 parlay can pay out thousands in return. For people that don’t bet often, the parlay is the ultimate seductress.

Just a quick recap: a parlay ties together multiple wagers into the same bet. So in UFC betting, you can bet on a fighter to win, then bet on the same fight to go under in a parlay. To win your parlay, you have to hit on both. If your guy wins but the fight goes over, you lose. Obviously, your chances of hitting a parlay drastically decreases with every wager you add.

Another thing with parlays is that the odds affect your payout. Stringing two massive favorites together isn’t going to win you very much. Tying two major underdogs together is where the money is. At UFC 226, I put $50 on Uriah Hall to win at +260 and Derrick Lewis to win at +280 - if I had hit both, I would’ve netted over $600. I came oh so close, calling Lewis correctly but missing on Hall, who nearly knocked out Paolo Costa. Of course, when it comes to gambling, coming close wins you knothing.

Like in other major sports, you really shouldn’t parlay more than two bets together when it comes to UFC betting. And even then, only play with house money - these bets lose far more often they win and online sportsbooks make a killing on them.

Often we’ll preview fights and recommend a pick as a parlay booster. We designate these based on value and probability: usually if a price is too expensive, but has a high chance of happening.

A few examples of past parlay boosters:

Jon Jones ( -909 ) to beat Anthony Smith ( +450 )

Tecia Torres vs. Weili Zhang fight goes to decision

Derrick Lewis vs. Junior Dos Santos fight doesn’t go to decision

In the case of Jones, there really didn’t appear to be any chance of an upset by Smith: the champ entered the cage as the better fighter in pretty much every aspect. With the outcome pretty much a sure thing, instead of having to bet over $900 to win $100, you might as well have parlayed Jones to win with another bet to boost your overall payout. Of course, with a line this expensive, don’t expect your earnings to be multiplied too much.

With Torres, you’re dealing with a fighter who has never been stopped, despite facing killers like Jessica Andrade and Joanna Jedrzejczyk. Also, in 10 career victories, Torres only has one stoppage win. Though she is highly skilled, Torres isn’t a finisher. Though Weili Zhang has a high percentage of stoppages, she had never met somebody of Torres’ caliber before. With women’s strawweight a division largely devoid of knockout punchers, it just made a lot of sense to assume that their fight would go to a decision. This was an obvious parlay booster.

Conversely, Derrick Lewis vs. Junior Dos Santos was a heavyweight matchup between two big bombers. In a division where everybody has the power to knock each other eat, Lewis has one of the highest KO ratios, with 18 knockouts in 21 career victories. With highly suspect cardio, it’s tough to see him going the full 25 minutes against any other big puncher - Lewis isn’t a guy that relies on judges’ scorecards. He’s all about landing the killshot, and with JDS’ chin in question is seemed fairly expected that this one would end early.

In general, we save parlay boosters for prices lower than -300. We’re not saying that this is a hard cutoff, but just a general rule of thumb. There are still plenty of great single bets around this price or lower. Remember: Floyd Mayweather was around -700 against Conor McGregor for their boxing match and professional sportsbettors all hailed it as one of the best bets they had ever seen.

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