No. 2 light heavyweight Alexander Gustafsson (18-5, 11 KOs, 3 SUBs) will meet No. 4 Anthony Smith (31-14, 17 KOs, 11 SUBs) at UFC on ESPN+ 11 on Saturday, June 1, 2019 at the Ericsson Globe in Stockholm, Sweden. The card airs live on ESPN+ starting 1pm ET.
Alexander Gustafsson and Anthony Smith might be top 5 light heavyweights, but both are in a no man’s land of sorts in the division. Each man’s last loss came against champion Jon Jones - and neither fight was particularly close. For Gustafsson, the defeat was particularly devastating as it came after a long campaign for a rematch after a surprisingly close first encounter.
While we don’t want to look past this fight - which is a worthy Fight Night main event - you’ve got to question where the winner goes from here. Best case scenario is that one of them becomes the guy you have to beat to get to Jones. There’s no shame in being a high level gatekeeper, but in a professional sport where a championship is always the end game, that title can be demoralizing.
Gustafsson even came out and said that if he lost to Smith, it’d be a sign that he doesn’t have it anymore. If you’re “Lionheart”, it’s kind of impossible not to take that as a personal insult, even though most people kind of get what the Swede is trying to say. For Smith, taking Gustafsson’s longtime spot as the best guy behind Jones would be an accomplishment for a guy that nobody really thought about until a year ago.
If you take away all the context and look at this fight in a vacuum, it’s an excellent scrap - and a compelling one to bet on. Let’s take a look at the UFC odds at BookMaker.u and break down your best betting options. Live UFC betting is also available to hedge your bets between rounds.
UFC Odds at BookMaker.eu
Alexander Gustafsson -330
Anthony Smith +248
Fight goes/doesn’t go to decision: +155 / -185
Significant Striking Stats
Landed per minute: Gustafsson 4.01 / Smith 3.19
Accuracy: Gustafsson 39% / Smith 49%
Absorbed per minute: Gustafsson 3.51 / Smith 4.86
Defense: Gustafsson 51% / Smith 43%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Gustafsson 1.63 / Smith 0.52
Takedown accuracy: Gustafsson 40% / Smith 28%
Takedown defense: Gustafsson 84% / Smith 50%
Submission average: Gustafsson 0.45 / Smith 0.52
Bet this UFC fight at BookMaker.eu
Here’s how you’d explain this fight to casuals: these are two high-level guys who can bang. Gustafsson is the much more technical fighter, relying on footwork, movement and boxing to wear down his opponents. The 32-year old is excellent at using his height to keep opponents at the end of his punches, and his dynamic combinations start with a long jab, leading into quick hooks and uppercuts.
Smith leans more into traditional Muay Thai, using all 8-points to attack. Much more an opportunist than a rhythm fighter, the 30-year old really thrives in the clinch, where he likes to launch knees to the gut and slice the face with quick elbows. He’s also very good at using his long limbs as leverage for quick subs - he came from behind to score a flash sub of Volkan Oezdemir to earn the Jones fight.
In this matchup, Smith’s poor takedown defense might be what costs him the fight. Gustafsson is a smart fighter and an underrated wrestler, and even he does his best work on the feet, it’s highly unlikely he’ll ignore the fact that Lionheart only defends takedown attempts at a 28% clip. Add to that the fact that Gustafsson is the more reliable striker and you’ve got an easy pick for the W.
UFC Odds Pick: Gustafsson to win at -330
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Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker sportsbook! Real-time spreads, totals, props and money line are all available so start betting with BookMaker today. UFC on ESPN+ 11 takes place on Saturday, June 1, 2019 at the Ericsson Globe in Stockholm, Sweden. The card airs live on ESPN+ starting 1pm ET.
