Scottish lightweight Steven Ray (22-8, 6 KOs, 8 SUBs) meets Brazil’s Leonardo Santos (16-3, 2 KOs, 9 SUBs) at UFC on ESPN+ 11 on Saturday, June 1, 2019 at the Ericsson Globe in Stockholm, Sweden. The card airs live on ESPN+ starting 1pm ET.
How old is too old to be considered a prospect? Because at 39 years old, Leonardo Santos has yet to lose in six UFC fights. That includes a win over Kevin Lee, former lightweight contender, back in 2015. But despite his current streak, a litany of injuries have held the Brazilian out for nearly three years, and this Saturday he’ll fight for the first time since October 2016.
His opponent, Stevie “Braveheart” Ray, won’t make it easy for Santos. This is the lightweight division after all, and there are no easy fights in this loaded weight class. A former Cage Warriors champ, Ray is coming off a win over Jessin Ayari which snapped a two-fight losing streak. Overall, Braveheart is 6-3 inside the octagon - a respectable record that features wins over Joe Lauzon and Ross Pearson as well.
While this fight as little divisional impact as a whole, it should be a fun fight between two entertaining fighters. Both Ray and Santos are fighters that are constantly looking to finish, and neither are afraid to bite down and start winging. The winner here takes a step up the crowded lightweight ladder, and in Santos’ case he could force the UFC to give him a known commodity with a win.
Let’s take a look at the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu and break down you best betting options. Live UFC betting at BookMaker.eu lets you hedge your bets between rounds.
UFC Odds at BookMaker.eu
Steven Ray +179
Leonardo Santos -230
Fight goes/doesn’t go to decision: -160 / +130
Striking Stats
Significant strikes landed per minute: Ray 3.51 / Santos 2.3
Accuracy: Ray 45% / Santos 40%
Significant strikes absorbed per minute: Ray 2.55 / Santos 2.64
Defense: Ray 55% / Santos 61%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Ray 0.73 / Santos 1.14
Takedown accuracy: Ray 55% / Santos 25%
Takedown defense: Ray 55% / Santos 86%
Submission average: Ray 0.73 / Santos 0.46
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We have to start this breakdown by bringing up Santos’ layoff. He is nearly 40 and coming off a variety of injuries - two things that never go well together in the same sentence. While he was never that dependent on athleticism, this is an age where many great fighters have considerably slowed down, even without major injury.
Though Santos’ record is impressive, his performances have been somewhat lacking. His last matchup against Adriano Martins was a tedious affair, with both men potshotting each other for three rounds. Before that, he actually looked to be making progress, displaying tight Muay Thai to complement his advanced BJJ skills. The skills are there, but the killer instinct has been lacking at times.
Whether he likes it or not, Santos will have to react to Ray. An aggressive fighter, Ray likes to mix it up with crisp southpaw striking and a solid clinch game. His ceiling was exposed a bit by Paul Felder, but Braveheart has shown consistent improvements in rounding out his skills. While the advantage figures to be his on the feet, Ray’s porous takedown defense could ultimately be his fatal flaw against Santos.
UFC Odds Pick: Ray to win by +179
This is a somewhat superficial pick, but it’s easy to lean on the guy that’s been active and is still in his 20s. It’s tough to trust a guy coming off so many injuries at 39, and Santos’ low output is a further strike against him. While Ray might have some trouble early, his youth and activity should give him his second straight win.
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Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker sportsbook! Real-time spreads, totals, props and money line are all available so start betting with BookMaker today. UFC on ESPN+ 11 takes place on Saturday, June 1, 2019 at the Ericsson Globe in Stockholm, Sweden. The card airs live on ESPN+ starting 1pm ET.
