Featherweight uber prospect Mirsad Bektic (13-1, 6 KOs, 3 SUBs) will meet No. 8 Josh Emmett (14-2, 5 KOs, 2 SUBs) at UFC on ESPN+ 13 on Saturday, July 13, 2019 at the Golden 1 Center in Sacramento, California. The card airs live on ESPN+ starting 8pm ET.
Mirsad Bektic is taking the long route to a UFC title shot. Ever since making his UFC debut in 2014, Bektic has been tabbed as a future contender, even drawing comparisons to the legendary GSP. That is a lot of expectations for the 28-year old to shoulder, but so far he’s looked the part - he just needs a few more big wins under his belt. When you’re not a flashy fighters, it takes a lot of victories to earn the important fights.
This Saturday, Bektic can creep up the featherweight rankings when he meets Josh Emmett in Sacramento. A former lightweight, Emmett made a big splash in his 145-pound debut with a quick knockout of perennial contender Ricardo Lamas in December 2017. Since then, he’s gone 1-1, getting KO’d by Jeremy Stephens but earning another KO against Michael Johnson this past March.
Bektic began his UFC career with a sterling 4-0 run, but a wild loss to Darren Elkins in 2017 seriously derailed his quick rise. It should be noted that he was handily winning that fight before gassing out and getting caught with a hail mary assault, and he’s bounced back with two straight wins. In his last outing, he earned a tough split decision win over Lamas.
The UFC odds at the online sportsbook opened with Bektic as a modest favorite, but let’s break down the matchup and get to the best betting values. Live UFC betting is available if you need to hedge your bets as well.
UFC Odds at BookMaker.eu
Mirsad Bektic -168
Josh Emmett +134
Fight goes/doesn’t go to decision: -120 / -120
Significant Striking Stats
Landed per minute: Emmett 3.5 / Bektic 2.92
Accuracy: Emmett 36% / Bektic 46%
Absorbed per minute: Emmett 3.32 / Bektic 1.42
Defense: Emmett 66% / Bektic 62%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Emmett 1.58 / Bektic 3.59
Takedown accuracy: Emmett 45% / Bektic 53%
Takedown defense: Emmett 50% / Bektic 100%
Submission average: Emmett 0.19 / Bektic 0.42
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Bektic has been so dominant in his wins that it’s actually been tough to find any weaknesses. It’s obvious that he’s got a monster right hand, and his explosive takedowns and punishing ground-and-pound are already a huge problem at 145 pounds. His cardio was called into question in the Elkins loss, but he proved against Lamas that he could go three hard rounds, answering a lot of questions about how he’d fare against top tier featherweights.
Emmett presents a different sort of challenge for Bektic. He is a big, powerful featherweight who is very difficult to physically overwhelm. On top of that, he’s a Team Alpha Male fighter, which is a team that produces some of the best wrestlers in the sport. He’s one of the few guys capable matching Bektic’s power punches as well - his last two wins were thunderous knockouts of skilled strikers.
The question here is how effective Bektic’s wrestling will be. If he lands an early takedown, he should easily get rolling with his dominant ground and pound. If Emmett keeps it standing, the Bosnian-American will have to eat some heavy, heavy leather - and we’re not entirely sure how sturdy his chin is. Still, online oddsmakers are justifiably siding with the wrestler here.
UFC Odds Pick: Bektic to win at -168
While Emmett’s defensive wrestling is solid, a 50% takedown defense won’t cut it against a wrestler of Bektic’s caliber. And even if this fight stays standing, we’re not so sure he has that big of an advantage on the feet either - he’s all big hooks and not much else. Bektic’s opening price of -166 is an excellent value considering the talent gap between the two, and even with late action we’d be comfortable taking him as low as -180.
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