Women’s flyweight champion Valentina Shevchenko (17-3, 5 KOs, 7 SUBs) will defend her title against Liz Carmouche (13-6, 6 KOs, 2 SUBs) at UFC on ESPN+ 14 on Saturday, August 10, 2019 at the Antel Arena in Montevideo, Uruguay. The card streams live on ESPN+ starting 8pm ET.
If there were a bet you could make at the online sportsbook to see which current UFC champ would hold their belt the longest, the biggest favorite would likely be Valentina Shevchenko. The women’s flyweight champ has done nothing but dominate since dropping down to 125 pounds - fulfilling the consensus prophecy that “Bullet” would hold the title as soon as the division was formed.
Shevchenko is quickly putting together a Hall of Fame resume. In 20 career fights, only two women have had their arms raised against her: Amanda Nunes and Liz Carmouche. This Saturday, she’ll get a chance to get the loss against Carmouche back.
The pair first met nearly 10 years ago in a regional promotion called C3 Fights, with Carmouche taking the win with a TKO. Since then, Shevchenko has grown into one of the best fighters in all of women’s MMA. Carmouche has been up-and-down, going 8-6 in competition with high profile losses to Ronda Rousey, Alexis Davis and Miesha Tate. However, Carmouche is still one of the most respected fighters in the division, having won two straight and reaching No. 3 at 125 pounds.
Still, the UFC odds at the online sportsbook opened with Shevchenko as a huge favorite. Let’s break down the matchup and go over your best betting options. Live UFC betting at BookMaker.eu is available to hedge your bets between rounds.
UFC Odds at BookMaker.eu
Valentina Shevchenko -1400
Liz Carmouche +722
Fight goes/doesn’t go to decision: +105 / -145
Significant Striking Stats
Landed per minute: Shevchenko 3.36 / Carmouche 2.49
Accuracy: Shevchenko 51% / Carmouche 57%
Absorbed per minute: Shevchenko 2.53 / Carmouche 3.72
Defense: Shevchenko 61% / Carmouche 61%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Shevchenko 2.06 / Carmouche 3.16
Takedown accuracy: Shevchenko 47% / Carmouche 67%
Takedown defense: Shevchenko 73% / Carmouche 67%
Submission average: Shevchenko 0.36 / Carmouche 0.51
UFC Odds Pick: Shevchenko to win at -1400
Let’s get straight to the point here: there are almost no plausible avenues to victory for Carmouche. She’s at her best when she’s grinding opponents down, but even then she relies too much on natural strength rather than technique. A lack of technique is a death sentence against Shevchenko, who is arguably the most technical women’s fighter on the roster.
On the feet, Carmouche gets lit up by a former pro Muay Thai champ. When’s the last time you’ve seen Shevchenko get taken down consistently? Carmouche will try like hell to drag her down, that really doesn’t seem like a possibility. Shevchenko is peaking as a fighter, and this fight is very much a matchup between an elite fighter and a slightly better-than-average opponent at best.
The UFC online odds for this matchup shows a very expensive price for the champ, so use it as a parlay booster - even then it won’t do much to your overall return.
UFC Odds Pick: Shevchenko inside the distance -145
You want to consider this prop given just how good Shevchenko has looked. Though she’s built a rep as a decision fighter, Bullet has actually earned stoppages in two of her last three. Carmouche’s lackluster striking puts her at serious risk of getting flatlined.
Bet on UFC odds at the online sportsbook now!
