No. 7 light heavyweight Volkan Oezdemir (15-4, 11 KOs, 1 SUB) meets No. 9 Ilir Latifi (14-6, 6 KOs, 4 SUBs) at UFC on ESPN+ 14 on Saturday, August 10, 2019 at the Antel Arena in Montevideo, Uruguay. The card streams live on ESPN+ starting 8pm ET.
Volkan Oezdemir’s fall has come just as quickly as his meteoric rise. After storming through the UFC 205-pound class in 2017 and earning a title shot, the Swiss native has lost three straight to fall to No. 7 in the division. This Saturday, not only is he trying to snap his slide, “No Time” is fighting to stay relevant at light heavyweight.
Standing opposite of him will be Ilir Latifi, a native Swede who had a brief moment in the title mix. It was only recently that Latifi had entered the fringes of contention with a two-fight winning streak over Tyson Pedro and Ovince St. Preux, but a loss to Corey Anderson in his most recent contest has pushed the Swede to the fringes of the top 10.
While neither guy is in the title picture, it’s an important career fight for both. Oezdemir is in danger of flaming out of the UFC with four straight losses, and Latifi was finally starting to get noticed after toiling unappreciated for so long. Beating Volkan would ensure that the Swede still gets to fight the bigger names out there.
Let’s take a look at the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu and break down your best betting options. Live UFC betting at BookMaker.eu also lets you hedge your bets between rounds.
UFC Odds at BookMaker.eu
Volkan Oezdemir -145
Ilir Latifi +115
Fight goes/doesn’t go to decision: +140 / -180
Significant Striking Stats
Landed per minute: Oezdemir 4.73 / Latifi 2.34
Accuracy: Oezdemir 46% / Latifi 42%
Absorbed per minute: Oezdemir 4.3 / Latifi 2.66
Defense: Oezdemir 55% / Latifi 56%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Oezdemir 0.57 / Latifi 1.89
Takedown accuracy: Oezdemir 22% / Latifi 32%
Takedown defense: Oezdemir 75% / Latifi 100%
Submission average: Oezdemir 0 / Latifi 0.57
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Oezdemir’s losing streak has produced weaknesses in key areas. He was no match for Cormier’s wrestling. Anthony Smith exploited his porous submission defense with a quick RNC - a fight that Oezdemir was winning. Dominick Reyes took a split decision as the Swede’s cardio gave out at the end of the fight.
In hindsight, it’s surprising that Volkan earned a title shot, but he still possesses some good tools. It’s obvious the 29-year old has power - he knocked out Manuwa and Cirkunov in less than three minutes combined. Against Reyes, the Swede hung tough against a rangy, athletic striker to keep it tied going into the third. If given time and space, Oezdemir is a very good kickboxer that can pour it on.
Latifi is defined by his physical profile - he’s a stocky 5’8” dude regularly scrapping against guys that are half a foot taller than him. The lack of range limits his ability to win kickboxing matches, but his low center of gravity makes him a strong wrestler. While he doesn’t land in high volume, his power needs to be respected - the man is a bowling ball.
UFC Odds Pick: Oezdemir to win at -145
While Latifi is an underrated wrestler, he’s no Daniel Cormier - it’s highly unlikely that he can take down his opponent with any consistency. In a sparring match, Latifi is facing a much more proficient striker, and while he should make it to the scorecards, he will lag far behind in landed strikes. The pick is Oezdemir to win a decision.
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