Lightweight prospect Damir Ismagulov (18-2, 9 KOs, 1 SUB) will meet Brazil’s Thiago Moises (12-3, 3 KOs, 4 SUBs) at UFC on ESPN+ 15 on Saturday, August 31, 2019 at the Unversiade Sports Arena in Shenzhen, China. The card airs live at 10pm ET.
Former multiple-time M-1 lightweight champion Damir Ismagulov is looking to continue his overseas success in the UFC. So far, so good - the Kazakhstani has won both of his UFC appearances to bring his unbeaten streak to 13 fights. He’s still got a ways to go before breaking into the top 15, but this Saturday he can take a step forward when he meets fellow prospect Thiago Moises in Shenzhen, China.
Moises is also a former champion, having won the Resurrection Fighting Alliance strap prior to signing with the UFC. He earned a ticket to the big show with a knockout of Gleidson Cutis at DWCS last August, but the 24-year old lost his UFC debut to Beneil Dariush. However, the fact that he was matched up against such a tough opponent in the first place speaks volumes about his potential. The Brazilian was able to get back in the win column with a decision over Kurt Holobaugh this past May.
Obviously, getting any sort of traction in the 155 pound class is extremely tough, but both Ismagulov and Moises are both young and talented. The winner here won’t get a ranked opponent just yet, but an impressive victory should at least earn another fight rather quickly - which is the best an unknown commodity can hope for in the shark-infested lightweight division.
Let’s take a look at the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu and break down your best betting options.
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UFC Odds at BookMaker.eu
Damir Ismagulov -211
Thiago Moises +166
Fight goes/doesn’t go to decision: -245 / +175
Significant Striking Stats
Landed per minute: Ismagulov 3.26 / Moises 0.53
Accuracy: Ismagulov 47% / Moises 50%
Absorbed per minute: Ismagulov 1.6 / Moises 3.8
Defense: Ismagulov 69% / Moises 38%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Ismagulov 2.5 / Moises 0
Takedown accuracy: Ismagulov 45% / Moises -
Takedown defense: Ismagulov - / Moises 50%
Submission average: Ismagulov 0 / Moises 4
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As Kazakhstan’s first fighter, Ismagulov has some solid skills as a strong wrestler with some serious punching power. In his last fight against Joel Alvarez, Ismagulov really leaned into his striking, even throwing out spinning back kicks and opening up with combinations. Before we get carried away, Alvarez is barely hanging onto a roster spot in the UFC and looked completely lost for two rounds.
Moises is a well-rounded fighter at just 24 years old, and training with American Top Team is always a good sign. He’s been considered a top prospect for a few years now, but his fight against Dariush showed that he’s still got a ways to go. In fact, he looks a lot like a younger, less experienced version of Dariush: a patient, clinical fighter who is constantly looking for a way to break down his opponents. His knockout on DWCS showed that he can score knockouts when he’s being aggressive, but that’s not something that he’ll seem to chase.
A lot of this matchup will depend on whether Ismagulov can establish the takedowns. If he can’t, then we’re left to a tossup between two prospects who have not become elite strikers yet.
UFC Odds Pick: Fight goes to decision -245
It’s tough to pick a winner here, as neither fighter has enough UFC experience to really lean strongly on either. We see the safest bet being the decision prop, as both guys tend to fall back on conservative tendencies if they’re not handily winning. Plus, Ismagulov has gone to decision in four of his past five, while only slightly more than 50% of Moises’ wins have come by way of finish. The price isn’t ideal but it’s playable.
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