Lightweight contender Donald Cerrone (36-12, 18 KOs, 17 SUBs) will meet brawler Justin Gaethje (20-2, 17 KOs, 1 SUB) at UFC on ESPN+ 16 on Saturday, September 14, 2019 at the Rogers Arena in Vancouver, Canada. The main card airs live on ESPN+ starting 8pm ET.
When it comes to cranking up the violence, Justin Gaethje has no equal. The former World Series of Fighting champ has only made five octagon apperances, but every one of those scraps ended in a memorable knockout - of either “The Highlight” or his opponent. More often than not, those KOs were preceded by a bloody, all-out trench war. In fact, his first three matchups with Michael Johnson, Eddie Alvarez and Dustin Poirier were consecutive enrtants for Fight of the Year.
This Saturday, Gaethje meets Donald Cerrone on the main event of a ESPN+ card in Vancouver. Another fighter who needs no introduction, “Cowboy” holds the record for most post-fight bonuses in promotional history with 18 (he also has the second most octagon appearances with 32). This is a legit UFC star whose been producing electrifying results for the UFC/WEC for over 12 years now. Throw him into the cage with Justin Gaethje, and the front row might need rain panchos for all the blood and plasma coming their way.
What’s more, Cowboy has reestablished his reputation as a lightweight contender. A former title challenger back in 2015, the BMF Ranch captain put together a solid stint at 170 before returning to his original weight class this year. He promptly reeled off two straight wins over Alexander Hernandez and Al Iaquinta before running into a buzzsaw in Tony Ferguson this past June. Gaethje bounced back from losses to Eddie Alvarez and Dustin Poirier with consecutive knockout wins over James Vick and Edson Barboza.
The UFC odds at BookMaker.eu opened with Gaethje as a big -200 favorite, giving Cerrone +170 on the comeback. Let’s break down the matchup and go over your best betting picks. Live UFC betting at the online sportsbook lets you make in-play wagers as needed.
Curent UFC Odds at BookMaker.eu
Donald Cerrone +156
Justin Gaethje -200
Fight goes/doesn’t go to decision: +350 / -530
Signficant Striking Stats
Landed per minute: Cerrone 4.2 / Gaethje 8.5
Striking accuracy: Cerrone 48% / Gaethje 54%
Absorbed per minute: Cerrone 4.06 / Gaethje 10.23
Defense: Cerrone 54% / Gaethje 53%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Cerrone 1.29 / Gaethje 0
Takedown accuracy: Cerrone 35% / Gaethje -
Takedown defense: Cerrone 72% / Gaethje 80%
Submission average: Cerrone 1.41 / Gaethje 0
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At 36 years old, Cowboy’s best days are behind him - but he’s still absolutely lethal inside the cage. Not only does he have an elite kickboxing arsenal, he’s one of the best at snatching opportunistic submissions. Nearly 15 years as a pro fighter has made him one of the savviest vets in the game, but he does have clear weaknesses that can be exploited.
For starters, he can be overwhelmed by relentless pressure. Rafael dos Anjos was the first to expose this, and Darren Till and Tony Ferguson followed suit. The bad new for Cowboy is that Gaethje knows no other way to fight - he marches forward and launches an endless hellstorm of kicks and punches until his opponent crumbles. The Highlight’s leg kicks hit with the force of a sledgehammer, and he reminded us of his iron fists with knockouts of Vick and Barboza.
The good news for Cowboy is that Gaethje is just as willing to eat punches as he is throw them. Gaethje currently asborbs over 10 signficant strikes a minute (not a typo), and that rate is unsustainable gainst killers like Cerrone. A former pro kickboxer, Cerrone has all the tools to stick-and-move his way to another big win.
UFC Odds Pick: Cerrone to win at +150
Disclosure: this pick is based solely on value. Gaethje’s style is a nightmare for Cowboy, but he’s no Tony Ferguson, nor is he a giant like Darren Till. This will come down to a matter of toughness, and like Poirier and Alvarez, Cerrone has the veteran know-how and the striking skills to come out victorious. Take a small bet at this price, and make it a bigger one if Cowboy gets to +200.
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