Middleweight knockout artist Uriah Hall (14-9, 11 KOs, 1 SUB) will meet submission specialist Antonio Carlos Jr (10-3, 8 SUBs) at UFC on ESPN+ 16 on Saturday, September 14, 2019 at the Rogers Arena in Vancouver, Canada. The main card airs live on ESPN+ starting 8pm ET.
Uriah Hall is like a box of chocolates...you know the rest. One of the most polarizing middleweights in the UFC, Hall had all the tools to become one of the most electrifying strikers on the roster. However, an inability to develop other parts of his game - and a puzzling tendency to fight tentatively - has relegated him to a gatekeeper role. Still, the man is still fully capable of authoring iconic highlight reel finishes.
This Saturday, Hall meets grappling specialist Antonio Carlos Jr. in a classic striker vs. grappler matchup. A former TUF Brazil competitor, the 29-year old finally seems to be capitalizing on his promise. Carlos’ recent five-fight win streak included four submissions, and his loss to an emerging Ian Heinish was close. He’s starting to separate himself from the prelim-level fighters - but he needs to look no further than his opponent to know how quickly a fighter can go from prospect to flameout.
This is a must-win matchup for Hall if he wants to keep his top 15 ranking. For somebody who has faced the likes of Robert Whittaker, Paulo Costa, Derek Brunson and Gegard Mousasi, losing to an up-and-comer like Carlos would be disastrous in terms of getting significant fights. For Carlos, a loss to Hall would be a major setback for a fighter just starting to get noticed.
Let’s take a look at the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu and break down your best betting options. Live UFC betting at the online sportsbook is available in case you want to make in-play wagers.
UFC Odds at BookMaker.eu
Uriah Hall -225
Antonio Carlos +176
Fight goes/doesn’t go to decision: +175 / -245
Significant Striking Stats
Landed per minute: Carlos 1.12 / Hall 3.43
Striking accuracy: Carlos 41% / Hall 51%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Carlos 3.65 / Hall 3.82
Striking defense: Carlos 40% / Hall 52%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Carlos 2.92 / Hall 0.83
Takedown accuracy: Carlos 80% / Hall 38%
Takedown defense: Carlos 72% / Hall 71%
Submission average: Carlos 2.19 / Hall 0.24
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This is an easy fight to break down. If it goes to the mat, it’s an easy win for Carlos. If it stays on the feet, it’s all Hall. Of course, there are intricacies to break down on how each fighter dictates what realm this fight takes place.
Carlos took an interesting path to get here: He debuted as a heavyweight on TUF Brazil, boasting elite submission skills and decent knockout power. A brief drop to light heavyweight didn’t end well, as the Brazilian was outwrestled by Patrick Cummins. He’s found a home at 185, retaining some of his power and benefitting from a more trim frame.
Though Carlos isn’t lost on the feet, he knows what time it is: he’s nowhere close to Hall’s level on the feet. Hall remains one of the division’s most explosive athletes, with a diverse arsenal of strikes that can end the fight at any time. However, his tendency to get inside his own head has lead to some frustrating losses. He’s most comfortable as a counterstriker, and he should get a few opportunities do some damage if Carlos gets too aggressive with his takedowns.
UFC Odds Pick: Carlos to win at -225
While Hall’s knockout power can be terrifying, Carlos is far more consistent when it comes to imposing his style of fighting. Ian Heinisch was able to turn back the Brazilian, but Hall isn’t the same type of hard-nosed wrestler who can stop a steady stream of takedown attempts. Those attempts are going to lead to a lot of time as the aggressor, which in turn should give Carlos enough points to take a decision win.
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