Former strawweight champion Carla Esparza (14-6, 3 KOs, 4 SUBs) will meet Mexican prospect Alexa Grasso (11-2, 4 KOs) at UFC on ESPN+ 17 on Saturday, September 21, 2019 at the Mexico City Arena in Mexico City, Mexico. The card streams live on ESPN+ starting 8pm ET.
Hey, remember when Carla Esparza was the strawweight champ? She was the division’s inaugural titleholder after winning TUF season 20, but failed in her first title defense against Joanna Jedrzejczyk - who later went on to become the most dominant champion so far in the weight class’ short history.
Since then, it’s been a bumpy road for Esparza, but she’s settling in right underneath the top tier. Though she’s lost two of her last three, defeats to Claudia Gadelha and Tatiana Suarez are nothing to hang your head about. She bounced back with a win over Virna Jandiroba, and this Saturday she meets Alexa Grasso in Mexico City.
The 26-year old Grasso entered the UFC as a blue chip prospect, but a loss to Felice Herrig in her second UFC bout showed that she still had a lot of work to do. However, Grasso has managed a 2-1 record since that defeat, with a loss to Saurez sandwiched around impressive wins over Randa Markos and Karolina Kowalkiewicz.
Grasso will be the crowd favorite here, as she’s a native Mexican fighting in Mexico City. This is also an extremely important fight for her, as a win could finally validate her early hype. Losing to a gatekeeper like Esparza could take years to recover from.
Let’s take a look at the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu and break down your best betting options. Live UFC betting at the online sportsbook is available throughout the night for in-play bets during each fight.
UFC Odds at Bookmaker.eu
Carla Esparza +105
Alexa Grasso -135
Fight goes/doesn’t go to decision: -320 / +240
Significant Striking Stats
Landed per minute: Esparza 2.15 / Grasso 5.79
Striking accuracy: Esparza 39% / Grasso 41%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Esparza 2.84 / Grasso 3.78
Striking defense: Esparza 53% / Grasso 65%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average per 15 minutes: Esparza 3.47 / Grasso 0.24
Takedown accuracy: Esparza 36% / Grasso 50%
Takedown defense: Esparza 47% / Grasso 63%
Submission average: Esparza 0.36 / Grasso 0.48
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Grasso failed the wrestling test against Tatiana Suarez, but that’s a puzzle nobody has been able to figure out so far. Esparza is another wrestler, and while she is every bit as relentless, the former champ is a few levels below in terms of size and raw physical strength.
Still, this should prove a difficult matchup for Grasso, who might not find much room to get her striking off. At her best, the 26-year old is a smooth boxer who thrives when she is launching counter-combinations against aggressive fighters. The question is whether she will be able to stay on her feet. While we she was steamrolled by Suarez, Grasso was able to stay upright against Randa Markos, another dogged wrestler.
If this fight stays standing, Grasso should have her way - Esparza has never been able to improve on her subpar striking. As a young, athletic fighter, Grasso naturally has a good sprawl, but once she’s grounded she does have difficulty getting up. The Mexican doesn’t have the type of fight-changing power to really intimidate Esparza from going all-out in search of takedowns.
UFC Odds Pick: Fight goes to decision -320
This is the safest pick, as this really could go either way. We’d suggest keeping an eye on the live UFC betting here if you really wanted to pick a winner. If Esparza is able to get this to the ground early, that’s a good sign that she’ll be able to hold the same course for three rounds. On the flip side, if Grasso is easily able to shuck the attempts, we’d go big with a bet on the Mexican as soon as the update line hits.
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