No. 5 bantamweight Sergio Pettis (17-5, 3 KOs, 3 SUBs) will meet UFC newcomer Tyson Nam (16-9, 9 KOs, 1 SUB) at UFC on ESPN+ 17 on Saturday, September 21, 2019 at the Mexico City Arena in Mexico City, Mexico. The card streams live on ESPN+ starting 8pm ET.
A new challenger has emerged. Stepping in for an injured Alex Perez, Tyson Nam will meet No. 5 flyweight Sergio Pettis on just three weeks notice this Saturday in Mexico City.
The matchup marks Nam’s UFC debut. The 35-year old made some noise in 2012 with a first-round knockout of then-Bellator bantamweight champion Eduardo Dantas at a Shooto Brazil event, but the UFC hopeful lost his next four bouts - including two appearances in the World Series of Fighting. He’s since rebounded with a 4-1-1 record in his past six, though he lost his most recent bout to Zhalgas Zhumagulov in Fight Night Global in April 2018.
Pettis was on the cusp of title contention after beating Joe Benavidez in June 2018, but he’s since lost two straight, dropping decisions to Jussier Formiga and Rob Font. That leaves his place at 125 pounds in a tough spot, as he’s still a top 5 fighter who clearly has a long ways to go before being considered championship material.
This is a high-risk, low-reward fight for Pettis, as a loss to a journeyman like Nam could plummet his current rankings. Plus, Nam made a name for himself by coming through against big names in tight spots - he could absolutely do the same here.
Let’s take a look at the online UFC odds at BookMaker.eu and break down your best betting picks. Live UFC betting at the online sportsbok is available for each fight on the card.
UFC Odds at BookMaker.eu
Sergio Pettis -280
Tyson Nam +214
Fight goes/doesn’t go to decision: -260 / +180
Significant Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Pettiis 3.68 / Nam -
Striking accuracy: Pettis 37% / Nam -
Strikes absorbed per minute: Pettis 2.93 / Nam -
Strikind defense: Pettis 64% / Nam -
Grappling Stats
Takedown average per 15 minutes: Pettis 0.92 / Nam -
Takedown accuracy: Pettis 40% / Nam -
Takedown defense: Pettis 67% / Nam -
Submission average: Pettis 0.38 / Nam -
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Pettis’ decision to go up to bantamweight was a good career move that did not work out so smoothly. After a loss to Jussier da Silva at flyweight, he drew a tough opponent in Rob Font for his first fight back at 135 pounds. In that contest, Pettis couldn’t handle Font’s reach and size and got swept on the scorecards. Seeing as Font is considered an elite gatekeeper, the loss doesn’t bode well for the 26-year old’s chances of making real noise in his new weight class.
Nam has two notable wins in his career: the aforementioned win over Dantas and a win over UFC alum Ali Bagautinov in 2017. Both knockouts have a fluky quality to them: Dantas ran straight into a knockout punch, while Bagautinov was cruising to a UD before getting laid out with a head kick with just one second remaining in the fight. Had it been a better known promotion that FNG, it would have been a Comeback of the Year entry.
The point here is that Nam has killshot power at this weight. But while his knockout ability is elite, his accompanying skills are most definitely not. He’s at his best against aggressive stalkers, when he can work a potent counter-game. Pettis is not as aggressive as his brother, nor is he as flashy. But he does bring the pressure and is a spectcular athlete to boot, which should give Nam some trouble.
UFC Odds Pick: Pettis to win at -280
There are just too many factors going against Nam for him to pull off one of his trademark out-of-nowhere upsets. He comes in with a short training camp, hasn’t fought in over a year and has to face the UFC jitters. There is a clear blueprint to beat him, and the Hawaiian is far too reliant on landing knockout strikes. Pettis to win is the easy pick in the online sportsbook, and if you’re looking for a better payout take the victory bet that he wins by decision as he’s not a finisher.
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