Featherweight prospect Yair Rodriguez (11-2, 4 KOs, 2 SUBs) will meet veteran Jeremy Stephens (28-16, 19 KOs, 2 SUBs) at UFC on ESPN 6 on Saturday, October 18, 2019 at the TD Garden in Boston, MA. The main card airs live on ESPN starting 9pm ET.
Let’s try this again. The first time that Yair Rodriguez and Jeremy Stephens faced off, the fight was stopped in a matter of moments after a nasty eye poke that Stephens couldn’t recover from. It was the worst possible circumstance, as the Mexico City crowd was absolutely amped for the main event featuring their native hero.
What happened afterward wasn’t pretty. The crowd littered the cage with trash and poured beer on the American as he walked out of the arena. Rodriguez celebrated as if he won, then accused Stephens of overplaying the injury to duck out of a scrap. The whole situation escalated into a hotel room confrontation where the pair ended up shoving each other.
To be honest, Rodriguez probably lost a lot of fans in the aftermath. Stephens is a guy that’s faced the likes of Max Holloway, Frankie Edgar, Anthony Pettis and Donald Cerrone. To think that he’d go through an entire training camp, which included relocating to Mexico City nearly a month before the fight to adjust to the altitude, only to look for an easy way out is all sorts of ridiculous.
Now, we’ve got ourselves a grudge match. The unfortunate part is that since this is now a co-main event, it’s been shaved down from a five-rounder to three rounds. That changes the dynamic of the fight, as both men have less time to find a rhythm and get to work faster. Hopefully these guys bro-hug it out afterwards.
Let’s take a look at the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu and break down your best betting options. Live UFC betting is available if you want to make wagers during any fight on the card as well.
UFC Odds at BookMaker.eu
Jeremy Stephens -115
Yair Rodriguez -115
Fight goes/doesn’t go to decision: -145 / +105
Significant Striking Stats
Landed per minute: Rodriguez 4.06 / Stephens 3.08
Striking accuracy: Rodriguez 43% / Stephens 40%
Absorbed per minute: Rodriguez 3.11 / Stephens 2.84
Defense: Rodriguez 58% / Stephens 59%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Rodriguez 1.02 / Stephens 1.11
Takedown accuracy: Rodriguez 33% / Stephens 36%
Takedown defense: Rodriguez 68% / Stephens 64%
Submission average: Rodriguez 1.02 / Stephens.41
Bet this UFC fight at BookMaker.eu
Is there anything that can be taken from the 15 seconds that these two fought? Not really, although it did appear that Yair planned to make his kicks a big part of his offense. No surprises there, as he’s an awesome athlete with a diverse arsenal of kicking attacks. Stephens didn’t have a chance to respond, but you know that he won’t hesitate to bite down and take it to El Pantera.
With the fight now taking place in Boston, Rodriguez loses the benefit of having a hometown crowd behind him. Instead of a rabid Mexican crowd backing him, he’s likely to hear a bunch of “U-S-A” chants in support of Stephens.
That Stephens has lost two straight and still maintains a top-10 ranking speaks to the respect that the brass has for him. Though it feels like he’s been around forever, he’s still just 33 - on the tail end of his physical prime. Once just an entertaining brawler, Lil’ Heathen has matured into a patient, refined striker when he needs to be. The brawling tendencies still surface from time to time, but he picks his spots to stand and trade.
UFC Odds Pick: Rodriguez to win at -115
We can see why the online UFC odds are so close here: Stephens’ meat-and-potatoes style can absolutely match up with his opponent’s high flying antics. But we lean slightly on Rodriguez, who will most assuredly be the more active fighter in this matchup. His long-range striking should also make life difficult for the shorter Stephens.
The other bet we’d look at is that this fight goes to decision. While it might seem counterintuitive given how aggressive they both are, Rodriguez has only been finished by a doctor stoppage and finishes just over half of his opponents. At +166 we’ll take those odds.
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