Lightweight veteran Michael Johnson (19-14, 8 KOs, 2 SUBs) will meet Scotland’s Steven “Braveheart” Ray (22-9, 6 KOs, 8 SUBs) at UFC on ESPN+ 20 on Saturday, October 26, 2019 at the Singapore Indoor Stadium in Singapore. The card streams live on ESPN+ at 8am ET.
The enigmatic Michael Johnson is back at 155. If you recall, “The Menace” moved down to featherweight after a 1-4 slide against the elite 155ers from 2015 to 2018, and managed a 2-2 record at 145 pounds This Saturday, he’ll return to lightweight when he meets Steven Ray in the co-main event of a Fight Night card in Singapore.
It’s difficult to accurately rank Johnson. This is a fighter that earned the highest profile scraps against stars like Nate Diaz, Khabib Nurmagomedov and Justin Gaethje. While all of those contests resulted in a stoppage loss, in each he performed better than more well-respected peers: he was beating Nate Diaz until he chose to start brawling, he nearly knocked out Gaethje, and his few moments of success against Khabib is the reason why so many strikers feel the undefeated Russian is vulnerable on the feet.
The problem with Johnson: he always seems to find a way to lose. At this point, with a 19-14 record, it’s tough to expect him to suddenly evolve into a high IQ fighter. But The Menace is still just 33, so maybe there’s still time.
Steven Ray comes into the matchup having lost three of his past four, most recently getting knocked out with a single punch by Leonardo Santos this past June. Ray is similar to Johnson in that he puts on exciting fights, but hasn’t faced the same level of competition - though he was granted a matchup with Paul Felder back in 2017 (ending in a first-round KO loss).
Let’s take a look at the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu for this matchup - which should be a sweet little banger. Live UFC betting at the online sportsbook is available to make wagers during the fight with real-time live updates.
UFC Odds at BookMaker.eu
Michael Johnson -345
Stevie Ray +255
Fight goes/doesn’t go to decision: -160 / +120
Significant Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Johnson 4.15 / Ray 3.46
Striking accuracy: Johnson 37% / Ray 44%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Johnson 3.82 / Ray 2.61
Striking defense: Johnson 58% / Ray 54%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Johnson 0.56 / Ray 0.71
Takedown accuracy: Johnson 45% / Ray 55%
Takedown defense: Johnson 78% / Ray 55%
Submission average: Johnson 0.06 / Ray 0.71
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Both Ray and Johnson can be controlled by strong grapplers, but both men are strikers who do not possess great offensive wrestling - this will be a standup affair. The Scot is an aggressive counterpuncher by nature, and generally does well against pressure fighters. He’s also shown the ability to make successful adjustments mid-fight, something is usually effective against Johnson. He’s not beyond shooting for a surprise takedown, but that probably won’t play against a fast-twitch athlete like The Menace.
When it comes to pure physical talent, there aren’t many that have the tools of Johnson. The 33-year old is a natural athlete with a long reach and extremely fast hands, and he makes the most of his assets with a superb boxing game. At range, The Menace lives up to his nickname, lighting up his opponents with accurate combinations. While he shows good defensive instincts, Johnson finds himself on the wrong end of too many strikes given how fast he is.
The big questione here is whether Ray can find a way to make Johnson pull off one of the fight-ending mistakes he’s so well known for. There’s another well-known way to beat Johnson, but it’s far more dangerous: going toe-to-toe with him and forcing him to fade. It’s not easy, but it’s happened time and time again.
UFC Odds Pick: Johnson to win at -345
Johnson’s losses usually come against fighters that have some sort of elite ability: Diaz had a granite chin and endless cardio. Gaethje is built from the same mold, and Darren Elkins is a brutal submission artist. Josh Emmett’s killshot power was the differencemaker. While Ray is a solid fighter, he simply doesn’t have anything he can overwhelm Johnson with. While the possibility of Johnson bombing is always there, they’re slim in this fight. You can feel comfortable with a sizeable bet on him at the online sportsbook.
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