Undefeated women’s strawweight prospect Marina Rodriguez (12-0, 5 KOs, 1 SUB) will meet fellow prospect Cynthia Calvillo (8-1, 2 KOs, 3 SUBs) at UFC on ESPN 7 on Saturday, December 7 at the Capital One Arena in Washington, DC. The card airs live on ESPN starting 9pm ET.
The strawweight division has quickly evolved into the most loaded women’s division in the UFC. That makes life tough for fighters trying to break into the contender ranks - even undefeated prospects like Marina Rodriguez. The 32-year old Brazilian has yet to lose in three octagon appearances, though her debut resulted in a draw with the respected Randa Markos.
However, a win over the well-regarded Tecia Torres this past August suggests that Rodriguez is ready to take another step up. This Saturday, she can further distance herself from the middle class when she meets Cynthia Calvillo in the nation’s capital.
Calvillo isn’t too far removed from being an undefeated prospect herself. Highly touted out of Team Alpha Male, the 32-year old won her first two UFC fights before having her hype derailed by Carla Esparza in December 2017. However, she’s bounced back nicely with wins over Poliana Botelho. Like Rodriguez, Calvillo is fighting for the right to face a bigger name the next time out.
This is excellent matchmaking from Sean Shelby - the stakes are high and their styles should produce a fun bout. As always, there are some solid betting values in the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu to consider. Let’s take a look and break it down. Live UFC betting is available if you need to make wagers during the fight.
UFC Odds at BookMaker.eu
Cynthia Calvillo +110
Marina Rodriguez -140
Fight goes/doesn’t go to decision: -245 / +175
Significant Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Rodriguez 5.82 / Calvillo 3.87
Striking accuracy: Rodriguez 51% / Calvillo 39%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Rodriguez 3.27 / Calvillo 3.5
Striking defense: Rodriguez 58% / Calvillo 64%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Rodriguez 0.33 / Calvillo 1.57
Takedown accuracy: Rodriguez 20% / Calvillo 36%
Takedown defense: Rodriguez 84% / Calvillo 69%
Submission average: Rodriguez 0.33 / Calvillo 2.02
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Rodriguez’s record is somewhat deceiving, especially since a win over Torres doesn’t mean as much as it used to. She possesses solid Muay Thai skill, but it’s not backed with much athleticism and the Brazilian is lost on the ground. Her best weapon is her pace, as the 32-year old sets a high pace and lands nearly six strikes a minute.
On paper, Rodriguez is easily the more skilled striker - but Calvillo will seriously test her grappling. Like any Team Alpha Male fighter, Calvillo is an excellent scrambler who punches her way into the clinch and relentlessly finds a way to drag fights to the mat. On top, Calvillo is lethal, grinding opponents down with constant activity and diving onto submissions when they present themselves.
Unfortunately, it’s not clear if and when Calvillo will evolve - she’s been largely the same fighter since her UFC debut. The defining question here is whether she will be able to take tax Rodriguez’s gas tank and take the fight to the mat. If she’s unable to do so, it’s gonna be a long night for Calvillo.
UFC Odds Pick: Rodriguez to win at -140
While the Brazilian would be in serious danger if she was forced to grapple with Calvillo, she does possess solid takedown defense and is the bigger fighter here. Expect the fight to be close in the first, with Rodriguez extending a lead as Calvillo gets more desperate to bring down her opponent.
The other pick here in the online sportsbook would be that the fight goes to decision. This is a division where more than half of the fights go the distance, and neither woman is a distinguished finisher.
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