Former lightweight champion Rafael Dos Anjos (30-12 5 KOs, 10 SUBs) will meet Michael Chiesa (16-5, 11 SUBs) at UFC on ESPN+24 on Saturday, January 25, 2019 at the PNC Arena in Raleigh, North Carolina. The card airs live starting 8pm ET.
Rafael Dos Anjos has shifted into a new phase of his career: elite gatekeeper. The former lightweight champion was riding a three-fight winning streak into welterweight title contention in 2017, but losses in three of his past four have knocked him out of the championship mix. This Saturday, he’ll look to fend off a further dip in the rankings when he meets another former lightweight in Michael Chiesa.
We can’t really hold Dos Anjos’ recent losses against him too much: they came against Kamaru Usman, Colby Covington and Leon Edwards - arguably the top three fighters in a loaded division. Still, neither of those matchups were particularly close as the Brazilian was smothered by superior wrestlers. Chiesa should prove a much more winnable matchup.
Chiesa has managed a 2-0 record since moving to welterweight. Since suffering a submission loss to Anthony Pettis in his final lightweight fight, the 32-year old has since righted the ship with back-to-back wins over Carlos Condit and Diego Sanchez. He’s taking a major step up in competition against Dos Anjos, who should prove much more stiffer competition than the shopworn vets he’s beaten recently.
The UFC odds at BookMaker.eu opened with RDA as a major -260 favorite, with Chiesa at +201 on the comeback. But let’s break down all your best betting options in the online sportsbook. Live UFC betting is also available if you’d like to wager during the fight on live updates.
UFC Odds at BookMaker.eu
Michael Chiesa +201
Rafael Dos Anjos -260
Fight goes/doesn’t go to decision: -150 / +110
Significant Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Dos Anjos 3.57 / Chiesa 2.15
Striking accuracy: Dos Anjos 45% / Chiesa 38%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Dos Anjos 3.28 / Chiesa 2.35
Striking defense: Dos Anjos 62% / Chiesa 52%
Grappling Stats
Takedowns per 15 minutes: Dos Anjos 1.89 / Chiesa 3.32
Takedown accuracy: Dos Anjos 39% / Chiesa 43%
Takedown defense: Dos Anjos 60% / Chiesa 68%
Submission average: Dos Anjos 0.66 / Chiesa 1.42
Bet UFC odds at the online sportsbook
Our online UFC oddsmakers have the right of it here: the Brazilian needs to be a big favorite. While he’s just 1-3 in his past four, his lone win over Kevin Lee showed that he’s still got plenty left at age 35. Although he started his UFC career as grappling specialist, RDA evolved into a dangerous Muay Thai specialist - to the point where it’s his most lethal skill.
While he gets suffocated by elite wrestlers, RDA is an excellent wrestler himself. That will be an important factor against Chiesa, a one-dimensional submission grappler. If Chiesa was a better pure wrestler, he’d stand a decent chance of blanketing RDA - it’s certainly worked for guys like Usman and Covington. However, Chiesa doesn’t have the skill nor strength to drag guys with good takedown defense to the mat.
When Chiesa is forced to strike, he looks lost against upper tier kickboxers. That will likely be the case here, as he’ll be seriously outclassed by RDA on the feet. While he might find some success with wild strikes here and there, Dos Anjos’ technicality will make sure those moments are fleeting. This could get ugly real quick.
UFC Odds Pick: Dos Anjos to win by decision +130
The price on RDA to win is too expensive for a straight play, so we recommend that you take the victory bet that he wins by decision. It’s been nearly five years since he’s knocked anyone out, and it’s doubtful that he submits a grappler like Chiesa. RDA should win this handily, but he’ll need the full three rounds to do so.
Bet on UFC odds at BookMaker.eu now!
