No. 5 light heavyweight Corey Anderson (13-4, 5 KOs) will meet No. 6 Jan Blachowicz (25-8, 6 KOs, 9 SUBs) at UFC on ESPN+ 25 on Saturday, February 15 at the Santa Ana Star Center in Rio Rancho, New Mexico. The card streams live on ESPN+ starting 8pm ET.
Corey Anderson is done waiting quietly for a title shot. After murking red-hot Johnny Walker in his last outing, “Overtime” tried to call his shot, demanding an opportunity against Jon Jones or threatening to sit out. The reaction from Dana White was annoyance, and Anderson has since seemed to calm down.
This Saturday, Anderson is back in action and will look to build his case against No. 6 Jan Blachowicz. Like Anderson, Blachowicz has steadily climbed the 205-pound ladder and has just as good a case as anyone that he should be next. He comes into the fight on a two-fight winning streak, beating two former middleweight contenders in Luke Rockhold and Ronaldo Souza. A February 2019 loss to Thiago Santos probably puts him a couple wins away from an actual challenge, but beating Anderson in convincing fashion would be a compelling argument.
Anderson has won four straight, with wins over Walker, Latifi, Glover Teixeria and Patrick Cummins. After a 1-3 slide that included losses to Shogun Rua, Jimi Manuwa and Ovince St. Preux, the 30-year old has seemingly turned a corner on his career. At the very least, Overtime is a legit top 5 fighter with some staying power in the contender ranks.
Let’s take a look at the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu and break down the betting lines, odds and make some predictions. Live UFC betting at the online sportsbook lets you bet on real-time line updates on an assortment of bets during the fight.
UFC odds at BookMaker.eu
Corey Anderson -230
Jan Blachowicz +179
Fight goes/doesn’t go to decision: -110 / -150
Significant Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Anderson 4.38 / Blachowicz 3.54
Striking accuracy: Anderson 46% / Blachowicz 50%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Anderson 2.2 / Blachowicz 3.11
Striking defense: Anderson 59% / Blachowicz 53%
Grappling Stats
Takedowns per 15 minutes: Anderson 4.96 / Blachowicz 1.39
Takedown accuracy: Anderson 50% / Blachowicz 52%
Takedown defense: ANderson 83% / Blachowicz 60%
Submissions per 15 minutes: Anderson 0 / Blachowicz 0.32
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Anderson won a weak season of The Ultimate Fighter to earn his spot on the roster, but it’s been a tough learning curve for him. Starting off as a power wrestler, Anderson was exposed early as heavy hitters like OSP and Gian Villante were able to score late knockouts in fights that he was winning. However, his recent win streak has shown an evolution where Anderson can mix his high-volume striking with high-output wrestling. His latest bout with Walker was an all-out brawl, proving that he does have the power to put away guys with his fists if necessary.
Blachowicz is a grappler turned conservative kickboxer - a formula that’s effective for winning fights but not ideal for gaining fans. He has good technique and solid athleticism, which led to a knockout win over Rockhold and a contentious split decision over the power-punching Souza. While not an imposing wrestler, the Pole is dangerous once he gets there, as evidenced by his nine submission wins. Quietly, Blachowicz has become one of the better fighters at 205, although it’s helped dramatically by the fact that it’s a thin, aging division.
This should be a competitive fight, but the jury’s out on whether it’ll be all that exciting. It’s likely that Blachowicz grappling prowess negates Anderson’s wrestling, which would lead to a kickboxing match. Anderson is quicker and more explosive, but Blachowicz is far more nuanced and technical in that respect. It’ll be interesting to see who comes out ahead in the exchanges.
UFC Odds Pick: Blachowicz to win at +179
We lean on Blachowicz’ steady kickboxing here. He’s been able to best a diverse set of good strikers, from boxers to kickers to knockout artists, and Anderson isn’t a world-class standup artist by any means. Additionally, Anderson doesn’t have killshot power as a crutch, which puts him at an even bigger disadvantage. Blachowicz takes a clear decision here.
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