No. 14 strawweight Karolina Kowalkiewicz (12-5, 1 KO, 2 SUBs) will meet China’s Xioanan Yan (11-1, 5 KOs) at UFC on ESPN+ 26 on Saturday, February 22 at the Spark Arena in Auckland, New Zealand. The card streams live starting 7pm ET.
Just a few years ago, Karolina Kowalkiewicz was one of the top-ranked strawweights in the world. This Saturday, the former title challenger will be fighting to stay ranked at 115 pounds.
Standing across from Kowalkiewicz will be Xiaonan Yan, who comes into the matchup on a four fight winning streak. While most of those victories came over mid-level competition, she was able to earn a decision over the well-regarded Angela Hill in her last outing. The Chinese fighter could make a big statement with a win here, given that her opponent is one of the more recognizable fighters in the weight class.
Kowalkiewicz is trying to avoid a fourth consecutive loss, losing to Jessica Andrade, Michelle Waterson and Alexa Grasso in her past three contests. While getting knocked out by Andrade is understandable, losing to Waterson and Grasso suggest that Kowalkiewicz is either declining or the division is catching up - or maybe a little bit of both. Either way, she could slip into irrelevance if she can’t stop a career-worst losing streak.
The UFC odds at BookMaker.eu opened with Yan as a favorite, but Kowalkiewicz is definitely a tough matchup for her. Let’s take a look at your best UFC betting plays in the online sportsbook. Live UFC betting is available if you want to bet on real-time line updates during the fight.
UFC Odds at BookMaker
Yan Xiaonan -238
Karolina Kowalkiewicz +193
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Significant Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Kowalkiewicz 5.57 / Xiaonan 6.85
Striking accuracy: Kowalkiewicz 39% / Xiaonan 40%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Kowalkiewicz: 5.58 / Xiaonan 4.22
Striking defense: Kowalkiewicz 57% / Xiaonan 64%
Grappling Stats
Takedowns per 15 minutes: Kowalkiewicz 0.11 / Xiaonan 0.25
Takedown accuracy: Kowalkiewicz 14% / Xiaonan 50%
Takedown defense: Kowalkiewicz 83% / Xiaonan 66%
Submissions per 15 minutes: Kowalkiewicz 0 / Xiaonan 0
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Kowalkiewicz is a good fighter, but it’s tough to argue that she’s ever been very talented. Her title fight was largely due to a shallow division (at the time), and an undefeated record that included an impressive win over a pre-champion Rose Namajunas. However, she’s lost to every top-level opponent since then - a list that includes Joanna Jedrzejczyk, Claudia Gadelha and Jessica Andrade.
The problem with Kowalkiewicz is that she relies almost entirely toughness and cardio for wins. A kickboxer by trade, the 36-year old has a high-output, low-power style that possesses little knockout threat. Her lack of athleticism and speed has always put a hard cap on her ceiling, as she’s never been able to dominate her opponents in any way.
The jury is still out on whether Yan can rise to the levels that Kowalkiewicz has, but there are a few things working for her in this fight. First, she is the bigger woman and the better athlete. Those two traits alone make her a problem for Kowalkiewicz. Like Kowalkiewicz, Yan is a kickboxer who wins through volume. But unlike her opponent, the 31-year old has some pop to her punches - 5 KOs in 11 career wins.
UFC Odds Pick: Yan to win by decision
This is both a lean on a rising prospect and a fade on an aging vet. Yan is younger, bigger and more aggressive on the feet - this is her fight to lose. We also advise picking her to win by decision, as Yan doesn’t have the power to crack Kowalkiewicz’s stiff chin.
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