No. 1 flyweight contender Joe Benavidez (28-5, 8 KO, 9 SUB) will meet Deiveson Figueiredo (17-1, 8 KO, 6 SUB) for the vacant flyweight title at UFC on ESPN+ 27 on Saturday, February 29 at the Chartway Arena in Norfolk, Virginia. The card airs live on ESPN+ starting at 8pm ET.
Thank god that Henry Cejudo has vacated the 125-pound title - the corny persona he had adopted as double champ had grown to unbearable cringiness. But more importantly, the flyweight class can finally move on, with The Messenger moving to bantamweight full time.
Whether the UFC keeps the flyweights around is debatable: I’d set the over/under on when this division gets folded at 1.5 years and hammer the under in the online sportsbook. But for now, we’re getting a title fight this Saturday between perennial contender Joe Benavidez and No. 3 Deiveson Figueiredo.
Benavidez can finally realize a dream more than a decade in the making. His quest for major promotional gold was stopped short by Dominick Cruz in the WEC, then he lost twice to the great Demetrious Johnson for the UFC title. It’s hard to fault a guy for failing against those guys, plus he narrowly beat Cejudo in 2016.
Figueiredo has been a beast since making his UFC debut in 2017, posting a 6-1 record with four finishes. The lone loss came against Jussier Formiga in March 2019, but wins over Alexandre Pantoja and Tim Elliott have put him back in title contention.
This should be a competitive, fast-paced fight, so let’s check the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu and break down your best betting options. Live UFC betting is available at the online sportsbook, featuring real-time updates that you can bet on during the fight.
Joe Benavidez -138
Deiveson Figueiredo +108
Fight goes/doesn’t go to decision: -180 / +140
Significant Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Benavidez 3.45 / Figueiredo 2.43
Striking accuracy: Benavidez 33% / Figueiredo 52%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Benavidez 2.45 / Figueiredo 2.15
Striking defense: Benavidez 63% / Figueiredo 55%
Grappling Stats
Takedowns per 15 minutes: Benavidez 1.45 / Figueiredo 1.86
Takedown accuracy: Benavidez 29% / Figueiredo 50%
Takedown defense: Benavidez 65% / Figueiredo 58%
Submission average: Benavidez 0.6 / Figueiredo 2.27
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Despite being around forever, Benavidez is just 35 years old. While he may be past his athletic prime, he can still string together wins with his craftiness and experience. After 15 years in the game, there’s nothing that Benavidez can’t do well. He can kickbox, he can wrestle and he can grapple - Benavidez has nearly the same numbers of KOs as he does submissions. However, the veteran is most comfortable on the feet, where he likes to dictate range and land in controlled bursts.
Figueiredo is a fighter who could easily move to bantamweight - the Brazilian is a massive 125-pounder with the power to overwhelm opponents with brute force. Being just 125-pounds means he doesn’t concede much speed or cardio despite being heavily muscled - an issue that plagues bigger fighters. Against the similarly sized Tim Elliott, Figueiredo showed confidence in a power striking game and a nasty, opportunistic submission game.
Trying to simply overpower Benavidez will not work - the vet is far too experienced to fall to such tactics. Figueiredo will have the physical advantages, but he will have to be fight more intelligently than he is accustomed to.
UFC Odds Pick: Benavidez to win at -138
We lean on Benavidez’s experience over Figueiredo’s athletic prowess. To date Benavidez has only lost to elite fighters (discounting a loss to Sergio Pettis where he came back from major injury), and the man figures out ways to win. Figueiredo has clear flaws in his game, and Benavidez will find ways to expose them. After 15 years, Benavidez lifts a belt over his head with a hard-fought decision.
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