Lightweight contenders Kevin Lee (18-5, 3 KOs, 8 SUBs) and Charles “Do Bronx” Oliveira (8 KOs, 18 SUBs) will meet at UFC on ESPN+ 28 on Saturday, March 14 at the Nilson Nelson Gymnasium in Brasilia, Brazil. The card streams live on ESPN+ starting 5pm ET.
Pop quiz: who owns the most submission wins in UFC history? Answer: Charles Oliveira, with 13 forced tapouts. That’s right, the Brazilian is ahead of BJJ legends like Demian Maia and Royce Gracie and esteemed luminaries like Nate Diaz and Frank Mir.
While “Do Bronx” hasn’t quite reached the same heights as those guys, the 30-year old has quietly marched into title contention, finishing six straight opponents heading into a pivotal matchup this Saturday night. What’s more, he’ll be fighting in his native country of Brazil, and the homefield advantage should come in handy against a rejuvenated Kevin Lee.
Lee put a 1-3 slide in the rearview in spectacular fashion, knocking out the previously undefeated Gregor Gillespie with a head kick this past November. While it doesn’t erase his recent losses, The Motown Phenom is still just 27 and battle-tested by some of the best lightweights on the planet - we’d bet that there’s a title fight in his future some day.
Here’s why you should be excited: you’ve got the most accomplished submission artist in UFC squaring off against one of the division’s best wrestlers. The grappling exchanges here should be every bit as exciting as an action-packed kickboxing bout. And if you’re one of those guys that don’t appreciate the ground game, you’re just a filthy casual.
The UFC odds at BookMaker.eu opened with Lee as a moderate -140 favorite, making Oliveira a slight +120 underdog on the comeback. It’s an extremely competitive fight, and we wouldn’t be surprised if this ended up as a pick’em. Let’s take a look at the online sportsbook and get to your best betting options.
Charles Oliveira +110 vs. Kevin Lee -141
Fight goes/doesn’t go to decision: +255 / -365
Significant Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Lee 4.06 / Oliveira 3.18
Striking accuracy: Lee 43% / Oliveira 50%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Lee 3.17 / Oliveira 3.01
Striking defense: Lee 52% / Oliveira 54%
Grappling Stats
Takedowns per 15 minutes: Lee 3.1 / Oliveira 2.8
Takedown accuracy: Lee 43% / Oliveira 43%
Takedown defense: Lee 80% / Oliveira 58%
Submissions per 15 minutes: Lee 0.98 / Oliveira 2.8
UFC Odds Pick: Oliveira to win at +110
It doesn’t take much for Lee’s hype train to get rolling - he’s a monster in the weight class with all the skills to be a champion. So of course, a flashy head kick knockout over an undefeated prospect like Gillespie is going to get a lot of attention.
But we’re not entirely convinced that this is a new Kevin Lee. We were supposed to see that when he moved up to welterweight. Instead, the same problems he’s always had resurfaced and he got choked out by a former lightweight in RDA. Is his cardio fixed? Will it ever not be a problem for Lee? We’re not trusting that gas tank until we see Lee go five hard rounds.
Oliveira might not be as powerful, but he’s quicker and a more fluid striker. While Lee should be able to take this fight to the ground, Do Bronx is one of the few fighters who should be completely comfortable with The Motown Phenom on top of him. We’ll take the Brazilian at any ‘dog price.
UFC Odds Pick: Fight doesn’t go to decision -365
These guys don’t see the scorecards often. Lee has gone to decision just twice in his past 12 fights, and only four of Oliveira’s 36 pro fights has been decided by judges. With both fighters possessing knockout power and elite submission grappling, you can expect somebody to end this within 25 minutes. It’s not cheap, but this prop is a much safer bet than picking a winner.
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