Rising middleweight Leon Edwards (16-3, 6 KOs, 3 SUBs) will meet No. 12 Gunnar Nelson (17-3, 3 KOs, 13 SUBs) at UFC on ESPN+ 5 on Saturday, March 16, 2019 at The O2 Arena in London, England. The card streams live on ESPN+ starting 3pm ET.
Leon Edwards personally knows how hard it is get some shine in a loaded welterweight division. Though he’s currently riding a six-fight winning streak, including a victory over Donald Cerrone in his last outing, Edwards is still only ranked No. 9 in the weight class. Maybe a big win in his home country could help.
This Saturday, Edwards - a native of England - will fight in London against Iceland’s Gunnar Nelson. Though he’s best known as Conor McGregor’s training partner, Nelson has been a consistently solid fighter since making his UFC debut in 2012. Over the course of 11 octagon appearances, Gunni has beaten Alan Jouban, Albert Tumenov and Alex Oliveira. His only losses in that time have been against Rick Story, Demian Maia and Santiago Ponzinibbio - the latter two being highly ranked contenders.
The stakes here are particularly high for Edwards, who is just starting to get some notice as a legit player in the weight class - despite an 8-2 records inside the octagon. Seven straight wins is nothing to sniff at, and adding another won would set up a big matchup against a top 7 guy like Ponzinibbio.
Let’s take a look at the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu and break down you best betting options. Live UFC betting is also available between rounds should you want to hedge any of your plays on fight night.
UFC Odds at BookMaker.eu
Leon Edwards -153
Gunnar Nelson +143
Fight goes/doesn’t go to decision: Check sportsbook
Significant Striking Stats
Landed per minute: Edwards 2.38 / Nelson 1.93
Accuracy: Edwards 48% / Nelson 58%
Absorbed per minute: Edwards 1.99 / Nelson 3.72
Defense: Edwards 55% / Nelson 49%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Edwards 1.26 / Nelson 1.79
Takedown accuracy: Edwards 29% / Nelson 57%
Takedown defense: Edwards 70% / Nelson 75%
Submission average: Edwards 0.52 / Nelson 1.19
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An interesting matchup here, since both guys have kind of been chameleons inside the cage. Edwards started his UFC career as a southpaw striker, though an extremely low output and a meat-and-potatoes style didn’t really wasn’t anything to get too stoked about. But more recently, he’s discovered a strong wrestling game - which is surprising since he doesn’t have a background in it. We’ve seen tie-up trips and double-legs behind combinations, along with some excellent scrambling.
But will he try and grapple with Nelson? The Icelander is one of the better submission artists at 170 pounds, with 13 taps in 17 career wins. Against strikers like Albert Tumenov and Alan Jouban, Nelson glued himself to his opponents and advanced positions until he found a submission. His guard isn’t as dangerous as his top game, but it still has to be respected.
Should the fight stay on the feet, it’s Edwards speedy hands against Nelson’s karate-based style. Given that they are both low volume strikers, a sparring match would be a highly tactical affair. Don’t expect a Robbie Lawler-style slugfest though, since both men are perfectly comfortable feinting and probing for weaknesses. You’ll never see either just start winging haymakers in hopes of a big finish.
UFC Odds Pick: Nelson to win at +143
While the odds are extremely close, we lean on Nelson to win a competitive affair. His striking can be difficult to figure out, and in his last matchup he outmuscled the powerful Alex Oliveira in the grappling exchanges. Wherever Edwards wants to take it, Nelson should have an answer.
Bet on UFC odds online at BookMaker.eu
Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker sportsbook! Real-time spreads, totals, props and money line are all available so start betting with BookMaker today. UFC on ESPN+ 5 takes place on Saturday, March 16, 2019 at The O2 Arena in London, England. The card streams live on ESPN+ starting 3pm ET.
