No. 4 heavyweight Curtis Blaydes (10-2, 8 KOs) will meet No. 11 Justin Willis (8-1, 4 KOs) at UFC Fight Night 148 on Saturday, March 23, 2019 at the Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tennessee. The card airs live starting 5pm PDT.
Curtis Blaydes was one fight away from a title shot. One quick knockout later - courtesy of Francis Ngannou - the 28-year old is squarely back inside the pack of top contenders. Still, in a shallow division like heavyweight, it doesn’t take many wins by a ranked fighter to be considered for a title. This is, after all, the same weight class where Derrick Lewis fought for the title.
He cannot overlook his opponent this Saturday though: Justin Willis has quietly won eight straight fights, including all four of his scraps inside the UFC. In his last outing, the big man outstruck former K-1 champion Mark Hunt. That’s not something you see every day, though Hunt was strangely passive in that scrap.
For Blaydes, a loss would be disastrous. Getting knocked out by Ngannou is understandable, but losing to a relative unknown like Willis would pretty much remove his credibility as a legit contender. The upside is higher for Willis: the big man could become the new Derrick Lewis should he find a way to win against such a well-regarded fighter.
Let’s take a look at the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu and break down your best online betting options. Live UFC betting is also available between rounds during the fight, just in case you want to hedge any of your previous plays.
UFC Odds at BookMaker.eu
Curtis Blaydes -283
Justin Willis +216
Fight goes/doesn’t go to decision: +150 / -190
Significant Striking Stats
Landed per minute: Blaydes 4.17 / Willis 4.40
Accuracy: Blaydes 50% / Willis 60%
Absorbed per minute: Blaydes 2.41 / Willis 2.92
Defense: Blaydes 54% / Willis 60%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Blaydes 6.75 / Willis 1.26
Takedown accuracy: Blaydes 55% / Willis 66%
Takedown defense: Blaydes 25% / Willis 0%
Submission average: Blaydes 0 / Willis 0
Bet on UFC Fight Night 148 Odds at BookMaker
You’re probably not familiar with Justin Willis, but “The Big Pretty” is a hard guy to miss. To put it bluntly, he’s built like Roy Nelson or Mark Hunt - a fat guy. Who doesn’t love watching those dudes bang? Do body shots hurt less for them? If they dieted and lost all that cellulite, could they make light heavyweight? In Willis case, he actually had trouble cutting down to 265 pounds.
We may never know, but what we do know is that most of these guys are far more athletic than they appear. That holds true with Willis, a bomber that pops dudes to the tune of more than four significant strikes landed per minute. He’s actually a solid wrestler as well, landing 1.26 takedowns per 15. But because he’s untested against upper level competition, we’re still unsure of just how good he is in these areas.
Blaydes is an excellent athlete with prototypical heavyweight size: a rather lean 6’4”, 255 pounds. Both of his pro losses came against Ngannou, and each was a knockout - which raises some questions about his chin. But he is already one of the better MMA wrestlers in the division, proving his takedown ability against Alexey Oleynik, Mark Hunt and Alistair Overeem. Don’t be fooled into thinking he’s one-dimensional either - his boxing has vastly improved under the tutelage of Duane Ludwig at Elevation Fight Team.
UFC Odds Pick: Blaydes to win at -283
There is some danger that Blaydes gets nuked by a Willis haymaker. But we’re siding with Curtis here, and that’s because the dude can wrestle. While Willis is surprisingly agile for his size, we just don’t see his balance or stamina holding up against a former juco wrestling champ and collegiate defensive end.
Bet on UFC odds online at BookMaker.eu
Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker sportsbook! Real-time spreads, totals, props and money line are all available so start betting with BookMaker today. UFC Fight Night 148 takes place on Saturday, March 23, 2019 at the Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tennessee. The card airs live starting 5pm PDT.
