No. 12 middleweight prospect Antonio Carlos Junior (10-2, 8 SUBs) will meet Ian Heinisch (12-1, 4 KOs, 2 SUBs) at UFC on ESPN+ 10 on Saturday, May 18, 2019 at the Blue Cross Arena in Rochester, New York. The card streams live on ESPN+ starting 8pm ET.
Antonio Carlos Jr. is making good on his promise. The winner of TUF 3 Brazil as a heavyweight, Carlos has since shrunk down to 185-pounds is currently riding a five-fight winning streak. Four of those wins have come by way of rear-naked choke, solidifying his reputation as a guy you seriously do not want to tangle with on the mat. At 29 years old, “Cara de Sapato” has climbed to No. 12 at middleweight. Does he have future contender potential?
Beating his opponent this Saturday, Ian Heinisch, wouldn’t answer the question entirely. But it would further separate the Brazilian from the middle of the pack. Heinisch is a solid prospect who came up through the LFA ranks and score a contract after a win on DWTNCS. In his UFC debut, Heinisch scored a surprising win in a tough matchup against Cezar Ferreira - who happens to be the TUF Brazil 1 winner. Beating Carlos would put him inside the top 15 after just two UFC fights.
Heinisch’s life story should be noted as well: he was busted for drug trafficking across two continents which led to a stint at the notorious Rikers Island. If he keeps rising through the ranks, it’s a tale you’ll likely become very familiar with as it’s an easy sell.
Let’s take a look at the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu and break down your best betting options. Live UFC betting is also available to hedge any of your bets between rounds as well.
UFC Odds at BookMaker.eu
Antonio Carlos Jr. -215
Ian Heinisch +168
Fight goes/doesn’t go to decision: +156 / -195
Significant Striking Stats
Landed per minute: Carlos 1.12 / Heinisch 3.67
Accuracy: Carlos 41% / Heinisch 57%
Absorbed per minute: Carlos 3.65 / Heinisch 2.07
Defense: Carlos 40% / Heinisch 52%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Carlos 2.92 / Heinisch 1
Takedown accuracy: Carlos 80% / Heinisch 14%
Takedown defense: Carlos 72% / Heinisch 50%
Submission average: Carlos 2.19 / Heinisch 2
Bet this fight at BookMaker.eu
Even in LFA, it was clear that Heinisch was a talented dude. A high level wrestler, the 30-year old has also developed a powerful punching game. It’s not the prettiest to watch (translation: the can get really wild), but he’s smart enough to not punch himself out and his unorthodox style actually lets him land with surprising accuracy.
While Ferreira was able to take him down consistently, Heinisch showed very good ability in popping back up to his feet against a good wrestler. Even after three rounds fighting off takedowns, Heinisch was fresh enough to keep marching down the retreating Brazilian - cardio is an obvious strength.
The 29-year old Carlos is a top-level grappler, though we have seen definite improvements in his striking. True to his muscular build, the Brazilian hits hard, but his paltry volume usually means he falls behind in sparring matches. Still, Carlos hasn’t been able to put everything together, and seems to fade when met with strong resistance. But like other BJJ experts before him, once he’s wrapped around his opponent it only seems to be a matter of time before he locks in the rear naked.
UFC Odds Pick: Heinisch to win at +168
Carlos’ two losses have come against guys with strong wrestling bases - a description that Heinisch fits. Though Ferreira was able to put the American down, he wasn’t able to keep him there. We see the same thing happening here, and Carlos’ stamina steadily draining as he fails to submit Heinisch. It won’t be easy, but we lean on Heinisch to outlast his opponent and earn a number next to his name.
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Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker sportsbook! Real-time spreads, totals, props and money line are all available so start betting with BookMaker today. UFC on ESPN+ 10 takes place on Saturday, May 18, 2019 at the Blue Cross Arena in Rochester, New York. The card streams live on ESPN+ starting 8pm ET.
