Women’s strawweight prospect Cynthia Calvillo (7-1, 2 KOs, 3 SUBs) will meet veteran Cortney Casey Sanchez (8-6, 3 KOs, 3 SUBs) at UFC on ESPN 1 on Sunday, February 17, 2019 at the Talking Stick Resort Arena in Phoenix, Arizona. The main card airs live on ESPN starting 9 pm ET.
The women’s 115-pound division is filled with a lot of bright prospects these days. Hoping to separate herself from the pack is Cynthia Calvillo, who is 7-1 as a pro and trains at the vaunted Team Alpha Male. Though she recently suffered her first loss to Carla Esparza, Calvillo bounced back nicely with a win over Poliana Botelho.
Her opponent, Cortney Casey-Sanchez, is coming off a close split decision win over Angela Hill. Coincidentally, it was the third straight time she went to split scorecards, though the two prior were losses to Felice Herrig and Michelle Waterson. In broad terms, Casey fights up or down to her competition, making her a tough test for most anyone in the division.
This is an important fight for Calvillo, who still has some shine as a promising, growing fighter. Casey’s 8-6 record pretty much confirms her ceiling as a gatekeeper, which means she’s exactly the type of opponent that Calvillo should be beating if she wants to ever be considered a title contender.
Let’s take a look at the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu, where online oddsmakers opened with Calvillo as a heavy favorite. We’ll break down the matchup and get to your best betting options. Live UFC betting is also available to hedge your bets on fight night as well.
UFC Odds at BookMaker.eu
Cortney Casey +244
Cynthia Calvillo -324
Fight goes/doesn’t go to decision: -265 / +185
Significant Striking Stats
Landed per minute: Casey 4.8 / Calvillo 3.41
Accuracy: Casey 38% / Calvillo 38%
Absorbed per minute: Casey 4.63 / Calvillo 3.1
Defense: Casey 52% / Calvillo 66%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Casey 0.4 / Calvillo 2.02
Takedown accuracy: Casey 30% / Calvillo 53%
Takedown defense: Casey 24% / Calvillo 69%
Submission average: Casey 0.53 / Calvillo 2.6
Bet this fight at BookMaker.eu
Like most Team Alpha Male fighters, Calvillo is a grappling specialist who specializes in scrambles. On a team filled with world-class wrestlers, Calvillo is rolling and grappling with some of the best lighter weight fighters in the business. She’s strong for the division, and has advanced takedown techniques beyond the basic head-and-arm throws that plague the weight class.
It’ll be interesting to see whether Calvillo can bully Casey, who is one of the biggest 115-pounders on the roster. That size makes her a problem, even if she doesn’t have a dominant skillset. Against JoJo Calderwood and Seo Hee Ham, Casey narrowly lost two fun brawls. Against grapplers in Cristina Stanciu and Randa Markos, she won the mat exchanges simply by outmuscling them. A lack of aggression tends to cost her as well, as she’s lost winnable fights simply by not being active enough.
In this matchup, Calvillo will definitely land a few takedowns. Wrestling defense is a weakness for Casey, but we’ve actually seen her do well when forced to grapple on the mat. She’ll have a much better chance if she keeps it standing, where Calvillo is still developing as a fighter.
UFC Odds Pick: Calvillo to win at -324
This is not a favorable matchup, nor is it a favorable price. Calvillo is too aggressive and too skilled on the mat to get outmuscled by Casey. Even if this does end up being closer than the UFC odds suggest, Casey’s lack of urgency has been a consistent problem throughout her career. Take this as a parlay.
Bet Online: Fight goes to decision at -265
This is usually the way to go in strawweight fights, where not many women have the power to knock out their opponents. That’s the case here. Calvillo has also never been finished, and though Casey has lost six times, she’s only been stopped once.
Bet on UFC odds at BookMaker.eu
Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker sportsbook! Real-time spreads, totals, props and money line are all available so start betting with BookMaker today. UFC on ESPN 1 takes place on Sunday, February 17, 2019 at the Talking Stick Resort Arena in Phoenix, Arizona. The main card airs live on ESPN starting 9 pm ET.
