Women’s strawweights Jessica Aguilar (20-7, 2 KOs, 8 SUBs) and Marina Rodriguez (5 KOs, 1 SUB) will meet at UFC on ESPN 2 on Saturday, March 30, 2019 at the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.
Jessica Aguilar has done a lot of things over a long MMA career, but fighting on just one week’s notice is something new. Stepping in for the injured Alexa Grasso, Aguilar will try and bounce back from a submission armbar loss to Weili Zhang in her last outing when she meets Marina Rodriguez this Saturday in Philly.
Just 1-3 in her past four, Aguilar has is currently mired in the worst slump of her career - which is disappointing since she was signed to the UFC on a 10-fight win streak. Getting back into the win column won’t be easy against Marina Rodriguez. Much like the 2016 version of Alexa Grasso, Rodriguez has the hype of a promising, unbeaten fighter. She is also one of the rare strawweights with knockout power with 5 KOs in 10 career victories. However, a draw against Randa Markos in her UFC debut showed that the Brazilian has some work to do as well.
It’s a good matchup between two strikers, though online oddsmakers have a clear favorite here. Let’s take a look at the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu and break down your best online betting options. Live UFC betting is also available between rounds during the fight, just in case you want to hedge any of your previous plays.
UFC Odds at BookMaker.eu
Jessica Aguilar +228
Marina Rodriguez -300
Fight goes/doesn’t go to decision: -320 / +240
Significant Striking Stats
Landed per minute: Aguilar 5.42 / Rodriguez 5.26
Accuracy: Aguilar 52% / Rodriguez 50%
Absorbed per minute: Aguilar 6.98 / Rodriguez 3.1
Defense: Aguilar 56% / Rodriguez 58%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Aguilar 1.23 / Rodriguez 0.83
Takedown accuracy: Aguilar 26% / Rodriguez 100%
Takedown defense: Aguilar 44% / Rodriguez 60%
Submission average: Aguilar 0 / Rodriguez 0.0
Bet this fight at BookMaker.eu
The good news for both women is that they’ll both be operating within their comfort zones. Aguilar is just 1-3 inside the octagon, and her tough, gritty kickboxing hasn’t been able to translate to wins in the deepest women’s division. It’s been a steep downward spiral for somebody that was considered one of the world’s best just a few short years ago.
What’s gone wrong for Aguilar? She was physically overmatched against Claudia Gadelha, Cortney Casey-Sanchez and Weili Zhang. While her typical striking aggression is there, the effectiveness hasn’t been. There have been moments where she’s found her groove, but as far as establishing the pace and rendering consistent punishment, it just hasn’t come together for Jag.
Rodriguez has a crisp Muay Thai game, and it carried her to an unblemished record in the Brazilian women’s MMA scene. Her competition was about as good as it got for a regional promotion - she wasn’t just running through complete scrubs. Against a solid fighter in Markos, she held her own but was unable to figure out how to deal with a wrestler.
UFC Odds Pick: Rodriguez to win at -300
In switching opponents, Rodriguez goes from slight underdog to heavy favorite. While she’s in danger against a more experienced opponent, Aguilar’s lack of a full training camp pretty much makes her a hard no in the sportsbook.
Alternate UFC Odds Pick: Fight goes to decision
The absence of a submission threat increases the chance that this goes to decision. Although it’s a more expensive play, this prop is much safer than picking a winner.
Bet on UFC odds online at BookMaker.eu
Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker sportsbook! Real-time spreads, totals, props and money line are all available so start betting with BookMaker today. UFC Fight Night 148 takes place on Saturday, March 23, 2019 at the Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tennessee. The card airs live starting 5pm PDT.
