Strawweight contender Karolina Kowalkiewicz (12-3, 1 KO, 2 SUB) meets “The Karate Hottie” Michelle Waterson (16-6, 3 KOs, 9 SUBs) at UFC on ESPN 2 on Saturday, March 30, 2019 at the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.
In eight UFC fights, Karolina Kowalkiewicz has established her place as a gatekeeper to the elite. Case in point: she owns wins over Randa Markos, Rose Namajunas and Felice Herrig. Her only losses came against then-champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk, former No. 1 contender Claudia Gadelha and current No. 1 contender Jessica Andrade.
Beating Kowalkiewicz means a lot, which is why here opponent this Saturday - the popular Michelle Waterson - has come out and said a win should put her in the title picture. Waterson comes into the matchup with two straight wins over Cortney Casey and Felice Herrig. While The Karate Hottie would probably need another few wins before being considered for a challenge, getting the W here would certainly bolster her case.
As for KK, there’s not much upside to beating Waterson besides keeping her spot just below the elite at 115 pounds. A loss would be a huge setback, possibly dropping the Polish kickboxer out of the top 10 for the first time in years.
Let’s take a look at the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu and break down your best online betting options. Live UFC betting is also available between rounds during the fight, just in case you want to hedge any of your previous plays.
UFC Odds at BookMaker.eu
Karolina Kowalkiewicz -140
Michelle Waterson +110
Fight goes/doesn’t go to decision: -300 / +220
Significant Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Kowalkiewicz 5.76 / Waterson 3.49
Accuracy: Kowalkiewicz 38% / Waterson 62%
Absorbed per minute: Kowalkiewicz 5.16 / Waterson 2.94
Defense: Kowalkiewicz 56% / Waterson 51%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Kowalkiewicz 0.14 / Waterson 2.23
Takedown accuracy: Kowalkiewicz 14% / Waterson 68%
Takedown defense: Kowalkiewicz 87% / Waterson 62%
Submission average: Kowalkiewicz 0.0 / Waterson 1.4
Bet on this UFC fight at BookMaker.eu
As is the case with most of Waterson’s fights, The Karate Hottie will be giving up a size advantage. As a natural atomweight, we’ve seen multiple instances where she’s simply physically overwhelmed by bigger women. Could you imagine her squaring up with somebody like Jessica Andrade?
Kowalkiewicz is no Andrade, but everybody remembers how she muscled Rose Namajunas to score a close win. She also fights longer than her 5’3” frame, standing straight up and flicking out combinations from distance. But her most dangerous weapon here will be her Thai clinch - KK is a former pro kickboxer who could conceivably lock her opponent in a plum and knee away.
Waterson’s paths to victory are a little less clear. She’s very much an opportunistic fighter, using her well-rounded skillset to pounce where she sees an opportunity. Though the 33-year old has a solid kicking game, she’s best in the scrambles, where she can find quick submissions. The question here is whether she can force the stronger Kowalkiewicz into those type of situations.
UFC Odds Pick: Kowalkiewicz to win at -140
Waterson will have some problems navigating KK’s range, and doesn’t have the physical strength to bowl her over either. Expect Kowalkiewicz to keep this on the feet, and mix up long-distance strikers with a punishing clinch game to take the win.
Bet on UFC odds online at BookMaker.eu
Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker sportsbook! Real-time spreads, totals, props and money line are all available so start betting with BookMaker today. UFC Fight Night 148 takes place on Saturday, March 23, 2019 at the Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tennessee. The card airs live starting 5pm PDT.
