No. 1 flyweight contender Jussier Formiga (23-5, 10 SUBs) will meet No. 2 Joe Benavidez (27-5, 7 KOs, 9 SUBs) at UFC on ESPN 3 on Saturday, June 29, 2019 at the Target Center in Minneapolis, Minnesota.
The flyweight division might be quickly diminishing, but there’s still some super talented fighters at the top of the 125-pound class. Case in point: this Saturday’s matchup between Jussier Formiga and Joe Benavidez. Ranked No. 1 and No. 2 respectively, they’ll scrap for the rights to face champion Henry Cejudo.
Of course, that comes with the huge caveat that the weight class is kept around for that long to begin with. If it does, there is a compelling case for both men to meet Cejudo, who has yet to defend his title against an actual flyweight.
Benavidez owns a win over Cejudo, besting the gold medalist in a razor-thin split decision win at The Ultimate Fighter 24 Finale in December 2016. Since then, he’s gone 2-1, with victories over Alex Perez and Dustin Ortiz following a loss to Sergio Pettis. For years, Benavidez was seen as the second best 125-pounder behind Mighty Mouse.
Formiga faced Cejudo in November 2015, dropping a split decision. Since then, he’s gone 5-1, beating guys like Pettis, Ben Nguyen and Deiveson Figueiredo while losing only to Ray Borg. He enters the matchup on a four-fight winning streak that’s seen him earn the top spot behind The Messenger.
Let’s take a look at the UFC odds at the online sportsbook and break down your best betting options. Live UFC betting is also available to hedge your bets between rounds as well.
UFC Odds at BookMaker.eu
Joe Benavidez -195
Jussier Formiga +154
Fight goes/doesn’t go to decision: -245 / +175
Significant Striking Stats
Landed per minute: Formiga 1.37 / Benavidez 3.4
Accuracy: Formiga 39% / Benavidez 33%
Absorbed per minute: Formiga 2.05 / Benavidez 2.58
Defense: Formiga 66% / Benavidez 63%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Formiga 1.97 / Benavidez 1.49
Takedown accuracy: Formiga 40% / Benavidez 29%
Takedown defense: Formiga 86% / Benavidez 65%
Submission average: Formiga 0.59 / Benavidez 0.62
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Formiga’s grappling game is one of the best in the division - made obvious by his 10 submission wins in 23 career victories. While his striking has always been a little lacking, his BJJ has been good enough to get to the top of a solid weight class. One only needs to look at Demian Maia - also competing on this card - to see how far a one-dimensional fighter can go.
Like Maia, Formiga is not a great athlete, relying more on grit and grind to get fights into his world. Unfortunately, that’s led to a style where he regularly falls behind in the standup, only to have to force the issue on the mat later on.
Benavidez is one of the only four UFC fighters to have beaten Formiga, and that 2013 ended with with a knee to the gut and blistering followup punches. The other three were Dodson, Cejudo and Borg - the common thread here is the plus athleticism and counter-wrestling skills. If Formiga can’t get this to the mat, he’s going to be in a lot of trouble as Benavidez is one of the best strikers out of Team Alpha Male.
UFC Odds Pick: Benavidez to win at -195
At some point, Benavidez’s age will catch up to him, but we wouldn’t be too worried at 34. He hasn’t looked diminished in any of his past wins, and Formiga’s inability to evolve as a kickboxer will once again play against him here. At this price, Benavidez isn’t cheap, but he’s definitely playable.
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