Welterweight contenders Rafael Dos Anjos (29-11, 5 KOs, 10 SUbs) and Leon Edwards (17-3, 6 KOs, 3 SUBs) will meet at UFC on ESPN 4 on Saturday, July 20, 2019 at the AT&T in San Antonio, Texas. The card airs live on ESPN starting 9pm ET.
Rafael Dos Anjos might not be close to a title shot, but for the past few years he’s been the guy that you have to beat to get one. Case in point: the last two men to beat the Brazilian - Colby Covington and Kamaru Usman - have gone on to challenge for the welterweight belt. RDA might be a gatekeeper, but he’s the gatekeeper at 170 pounds.
That’s not to say Leon Edwards would get a crack at the strap should he beat RDA this Saturday. But at the very least, he’d be just another fight or two away from the title. The Brit comes into the matchup on a seven-fight win streak, notching impressive wins over the likes of Gunnar Nelson and Cowboy Cerrone along the way. Still flying a bit under the radar, the No. 11 Edwards has the opportunity to leap into the top 5.
It’s an important fight in a stacked weight class and a worthy main event for an ESPN network card. Plus, Dos Anjos is one of the more reliably entertaining fighters, while Edwards is as brash and outspoken as they come. Remember, this dude got into a backstage brawl with Jorge Masvidal after his last fight.
Let’s take a look at the UFC odds at the online sportsbook and break down the best betting values. Live UFC betting is available between rounds to hedge your bets as needed.
UFC odds at BookMaker.eu
Rafael Dos Anjos -125
Leon Edwards -105
Fight goes/doesn’t go to decision: -150 / +110
Significant Striking Stats
Landed per minute: Dos Anjos 3.60 / Edwards 2.35
Accuracy: Dos Anjos 45% / Edwards 49%
Absorbed per minute: Dos Anjos 3.25 / Edwards 1.86
Defense: Dos Anjos 62% / Edwards 55%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Dos Anjos 2.02 / Edwards 1.33
Takedown accuracy: Dos Anjos 41% / Edwards 31%
Takedown defense: Dos Anjos 59% / Edwards 67%
Submission average: Dos Anjos 0.7 / Edwards 0.5
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Edwards has both evolved and devolved since joining the UFC. Technically, he’s improved to the point where he’s compiled an 11-2 octagon record - an impressive feat considering the division he’s in. But the power puncher who blasted through the British MMA scene is long gone, replaced by a grinder who rides takedowns and top control to victory. It’s not the most fun to watch, but it’s been ridiculously effective - anybody who can grind down the likes of Nelson and Cowboy needs to be respected.
RDA is an extremely well-rounded fighter who does his best work inside the pocket. With his textbook Muay Thai approach, the Brazilian loves to move forward and launch smooth, crisp combinations and work down his opponent’s life bar. In this matchup, he’ll have the obvious striking advantage - he almost always does - but guys like Kamaru Usman and Colby Covington were able to physically overwhelm him. The caveat here is that both Usman and Covington are elite wrestlers with ridiculous cardio.
This is a tough fight to call. RDA can be beat by grinders like Edwards - but only the best of them. The Brit didn’t grow up on the wrestling circuit, so even though he’s an excellent wrestler he doesn’t have that advanced technical ability to spam takedowns against RDA. He might have to fall back on his striking and rediscover his power punching.
UFC Odds Pick: Dos Anjos to win at -105
We tipped our hand in the breakdown - lean on Dos Anjos here. He’s got a greater overall skillset and a clear advantage in striking. However, this is definitely a fight you’ll want to be signed into live UFC betting. If Edwards starts landing takedowns you might want to put a bet on him between rounds. Another angle to see it is that he might start landing takedowns but start to tire a la Kevin Lee, in which case that’s time to double down on RDA taking over and winning.
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