Lightweight prospects Joaquim Silva (11-1, 6 KOs, 3 SUBs) and Nasrat Haqparast (10-2, 8 KOs) will meet at UFC on ESPN 5 on Saturday, August 3, 2019 at the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey. The card airs live on ESPN starting 3pm ET.
The adage that “there are no easy fights in the UFC” rings especially true at lightweight. The promotion’s most loaded division is brimming with elite fighters - and even the unranked guys trying to make a name for themselves are especially dangerous.
This Saturday’s matchup between Nasrat Haqparast and Joaquim Silva is a great example of how competitive 155 can be. You might not have heard of either, but both are excellent fighters. Silva is 11-1, and his 4-1 UFC record includes wins over guys like Andrew Holbrook and Jared Gordon. Haqparast is just 23 years old and his 10-2 record includes eight knockouts.
It’s surprising that this fight is getting main card placement, but the UFC knows what it’s doing: each man has an aggressive style of fighting that produces a ton of action. So while they’re not well-known names, this could easily be one of the more exciting fights of the night.
Plus, Haqparast looks like he could be special - which is why he’s a heavy favorite in the UFC odds at the BookMaker online sportsbook. Let’s take a look at the matchup and break down your best betting picks. Live UFC betting is also available between rounds as needed.
UFC odds at BookMaker.eu
Joaquim Silva +190
Nasrat Haqparast -245
Fight goes/doesn’t go to decision: -160 / +120
Significant Striking Stats
Landed per minute: Silva 4.04 / Haqparast 5.42
Accuracy: Silva 38% / Haqparast 46%
Absorbed per minute: Silva 4.5 / Haqparast
Defense: Silva 57% / Haqparast
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Silva 0.26 / Haqparast 0.33
Takedown accuracy: Silva 50% / Haqparast 25%
Takedown defense: Silva 64% / Haqparast 78%
Submission average: Silva 0.77 / Haqparast 0
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All of Haqparast’s UFC fights give glimpses to why he’s a blue chip prospect. Against an elite striker in Marc Diakiese, Haqparast calmly backed him up with his power. Against Thibault Gouti, he dug in for a war, ate some hard body shots but took the W and Fight of the Night honors. Even in his loss against grappling specialist Marcin Held - his UFC debut - Haqparast held his own against a far more experienced opponent.
He’s still too raw for a ranked opponent - his striking is still absolute chaos that depends on big hits. But the natural grappling talent and above average power are already evident. Silva makes for an interesting opponent: the Brazilian is a BJJ black belt who loves gunning for knockouts. It’s fair to compare him to Vitor Belfort, though Silva lacks the type of explosive killshot power his countryman has.
Take a look at their striking stats and you could surmise that this one could get wild. Both men swing hard and often, headhunting for bonuses. If this does end up on the mat, we’d have to give the edge to Silva, who is a well-known advocate for grappling. But the Brazilian doesn’t have the wrestling chops to force it to the mat, nor does it seem like he has the desire to based on his willingness to stand and trade.
UFC Odds Pick: Haqparast to win at -245
It’s always risky picking on somebody so young who is still developing, but Haqparast’s rapid improvements inside the cage implies a ceiling that should allow him to feast on mid-tier opponents like Silva. We expect both of them to try and bang here, and in that scenario we give the edge to the younger, faster and more powerful Haqparast.
Silva’s line has gone up about 20 points in the past few weeks, which indicated that most of the action has been on Haqparast. The price is playable even as a straight bet, and you should definitely have confidence that Haqparast takes another step forward in this matchup.
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