Former welterweight champion Robbie Lawler (28-13, 20 KOs, 1 SUB) will meet former interim champion Colby Covington (14-1, 2 KOs, 5 SUBs) at UFC on ESPN 5 on Saturday, August 3, 2019 at the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey. The card airs live on ESPN starting 3pm ET.
Colby Covington isn’t waiting around for his title shot. Well, he was, but that didn’t work out as planned. So this Saturday, the ATT rep will headline UFC on ESPN 5 opposite Robbie Lawler. It’s an awesome scrap between two elite welterweights, and it could mean a title shot for the brash Covington.
Lawler is 1-3 in his last four, but his most recent outing against Ben Askren wasn’t really a loss: “Ruthless” smashed the previously unbeaten Askren within an inch of unconsciousness, then was “submitted” in controversial fashion. Referee Herb Dean gave Askren the bulldog choke win, but Lawler immediately popped up afterward and appeared to be fine. In the public eye, that wasn’t really a loss. In fact, it served as a reminder at just how brutal Lawler can eff dudes up.
Covington comes into the match up with six straight wins, most recently beating contenders in Demian Maia and Rafael dos Anjos. The win over RDA saw him walk away with the interim title, but Dana White elected to strip Covington when the 31-year old couldn’t make a scheduled title defense against Tyron Woodley. This Saturday’s fight will be his first appearance since that 2018 fight and losing his belt.
Let’s take a look at the UFC odds at the BookMaker online sportsbook and break down your best betting picks. Live UFC betting is available to place bets between rounds.
UFC Odds at BookMaker.eu
Colby Covington -230
Robbie Lawler +179
Fight goes/doesn’t go to decision: -115 / -125
Significant Striking Stats
Landed per minute: Covington 3.26 / Lawler 3.93
Accuracy: Covington 38% / Lawler 46%
Absorbed per minute: Covington 2.2 / Lawler 5.47
Defense: Covington 57% / Lawler 60%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Covington 5.63 / Lawler 0.99
Takedown accuracy: Covington 51% / Lawler 77%
Takedown defense: Covington 78% / Lawler 69%
Submission average: Covington 0.23 / Lawler 0
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This is an easy fight to label stylistically: striker vs. wrestler. Covington’s an elite wrestler, and Lawler mauls people on the feet. So if this fight stays standing, Lawler should take it. If it goes to the mat, it’s because Covington brought it there.
We should point out that Covington averages over five and a half takedowns per 15 minutes - almost two per round. A former collegiate wrestler, he’s powered by a supercharged battery that never seems to run out of energy. That gives him the ability to be absolutely relentless when it comes to suffocating opponents. At his best, he’s hitting takedowns, controlling opponents from the top and laying it on heavy with ground and pound.
Can Lawler avoid this scenario? The good thing here is that he won’t have to worry about Colby’s punching power - only two knockouts in 15 career wins. While he’s faced good wrestlers before, Lawler actually hasn’t faced a non-stop takedown machine like Covington. Lawler has an excellent sprawl and good counter-wrestling, but submission defense has been a weakness earlier in his career. He might be able to escape the first few takedowns, but what happens in the fourth and fifth rounds when they’re still coming.
UFC Odds Pick: Covington to win at -230
As much as we love Lawler, Covington will likely overwhelm him. It’s hard to get punches off when somebody is constantly locking up with you - we see a lot of time spent with Lawler pressed into the cage fighting off body locks. At some point, Covington will start hitting takedowns and piling up enough top control to take a decision win.
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