Lightweight contenders Dustin Poirier (22-5, 10 KOs, 7 SUBs) and Justin Gaethje (18-1, 16 KOs) will clash at UFC 223 on Saturday, April 7, 2018 at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York. The card airs live on pay-per-view starting 10 p.m. ET, following the FS1 prelims. Get the latest UFC odds and get previews, predictions and betting picks at BookMaker.eu now.
Justin Gaethje is coming off the first loss of his career, but it was one that makes you seriously question how high such a violent brawler can rise in the UFC’s shark-infested lightweight division. As fun as his march-forward-at-all-costs style is, Eddie Alvarez proved that it’s simply unsustainable against the world’s best lightweights.
The question is whether Gaethje will change it up in his next matchup. And his opponent, Dustin Poirier, is no stranger to explosive finishes himself. In fact, “The Diamond” is dangerous in every area, equally as apt to notch a submission as he is to punch somebody’s lights out. But he’ll have his hands full with Gaethje, who is used to breaking fighters with a neverending onslaught of offense.
It’s an extremely competitive fight, every bit worthy of main event status and a dark horse candidate for Fight of the Year. The UFC odds at BookMaker.eu are close, but we’re here to guide you to the best values. Let’s break it down.
UFC Odds at BookMaker.eu
Dustin Poirier -140
Justin Gaethje +120
Fight goes/doesn’t go to decision: +280/-400
Matchup Preview
Poirier is a veteran of 19 UFC fights, and he’s still just only 29 years old. Compiling a 14-4 record with 1 NC, Poirier has been good enough to rise into the contender ranks at both featherweight and lightweight - two of the most loaded divisions in the UFC. Along the way, he’s been in premium matchups against top-notch opponents like Max Holloway, Cub Swanson, Eddie Alvarez and even Conor McGregor.
Gaethje is just two fights into his UFC career, and he’s already made an undeniable impression. His debut against Michael Johnson earned Fight of the Year in multiple major media outlets. But against Alvarez, he tried to march down more well-rounded fighter and ended up lying on the canvas. It was a gut-wrenching loss that proved that Gaethje isn’t unbreakable. He killed it in the WSOF, but the UFC is a different story.
Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Poirier 5.08 / Gaethje 9.5
Accuracy: Poirier 50% / Gaethje 54.99%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Poirier 3.42 / Gaethje 10.34
Defense: Poirier 57.12% / Gaethje 55.76%
Grappling Stats
Takedown Average: Poirier 1.99 / Gaethje 0
Takedown Accuracy: Poirier 45.28% / Gaethje 0
Takedowns Defended: Poirier 67.39% / Gaethje 60%
Submission Average: Poirier 1.33 / Gaethje 0
Inside the Numbers
In nearly 20 years of following MMA, I’ve never seen a fighter with the kind of striking numbers that Gaethje has. Who the hell lands 9.5 strikes per minute and absorbs 10.34 at the same time? Those are insane numbers, but one that so accurately defines Gaethje - he is going to eat punches and hit you until you go down.
Poirier’s no slouch either, landing over 5 strikes per minute and landing half of them is the mark of an elite striker. While he’s as experienced as they come, The Diamond has never faced anyone like Gaethje. That’s because there’s simply nobody like Gaethje.
UFC Odds Pick: Poirier to win at -140
While Gaethje is a live ‘dog, Poirier’s line is affordable enough for a straight play. We particularly like his ability and willingness to wrestle against high level strikers. Against Joe Duffy, Poirier shot blast doubles and pounded away from the top all day. Being able to keep Gaethje guessing is the key to beating him, and Poirier’s got all the tools to do so.
UFC Odds Pick: Fight Goes to Decision at +280
We’re guessing that Gaethje pulls back a little here, in the name of self-preservation. People tend to do that once they get to the UFC and find out they can’t just walk through everyone. While we do believe that somebody will finish the fight, we like the payout on the decision enough to recommend a small bet.
Bet on UFC odds at BookMaker.eu
Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker sportsbook! Real-time spreads, totals, props and money line are all available so start betting with BookMaker today. UFC on FOX 29 takes place on Saturday, April 14, 2018 at the Gila River Arena in Glendale, Arizona. The main card airs live on FOX starting 8 p.m.
