Brazilian jiu-jitsu specialist Antonio Carlos Junior (9-2, 7 SUBs) will meet middleweight veteran Tim Boetsch (21-11, 11 KOs, 5 SUBs) will meet at UFC on FOX 29 on Saturday, April 14, 2018 at the Gila River Arena in Glendale, Arizona. The card airs live on FOX starting 8 p.m. ET. Bet on the latest UFC odds and get the latest previews, predictions and picks at BookMaker.eu now!
Tim Boetsch has long been one of the middleweight division’s most grittiest fighters. Never quite good enough to be a contender, “The Barbarian” has nevertheless carved out a productive UFC career. At 37, his time inside the octagon is winding down, but you can be sure that he’s still a tough out.
This Saturday, the 37-year old will look to knock off a rising young prospect when he meets 28-year old Antonio Carlos Junior at UFC on FOX 29 in Glendale. It’s a nice style matchup, pitting Boetsch’s punishing striking against a slick jiu-jitsu player. Since losing to Daniel Kelly as a major favorite in March 2016, junior has reeled off four straight wins - signalling that he could finally be living up to his promising potential.
So should you back Boetsch? He’s certainly gutted out some nice underdog wins. Or do you have faith that Junior has turned a corner and is ready to step inside the top 15? Let’s take a look at the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu and break down your best betting options.
UFC Odds at BookMaker.eu
TIm Boetsch +220
Antonio Carlos Jr. -260
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Matchup Preview
As the winner of The Ultimate Fighter Brazil 3, Junior was tabbed as a blue chip prospect - but he hasn’t necessarily lived up to that hype. However, he is steadily improving, and the tools he has to work with are undeniably great. The Brazilian is an excellent athlete a polished BJJ black belt and a powerful takedown artist.
Statistically, Junior lands 3.77 takedowns per 15 minutes, completing them with 46% accuracy. For reference, Daniel Cormier, an elite MMA wrestler, lands 1.89 takedowns at a 42% rate. While not quite on the level of somebody like Demian Maia, Junior’s submission game is lethal - it’s no surprise that he’s notched submissions in three of his past four fights.
All told, Junior is a guy that could easily be 6-0 as a middleweight, if not for a freak eye poke against Kevin Casey that ruled a fight a No Contest after 11 seconds, and a loss to Daniel Kelly after he nearly finished the scrap in the first frame but completely exhausted himself.
Boetsch isn’t very quick, nor is he a good athlete. But what he does have is a good chin, clubbing power and an ugly style that steadily grinds down opponents. He can ice dudes with both hands, and his clinch game is absolutely brutal. On the feet, Boetsch should have a clear advantage against a guy who needs to develop as a striker.
The question here is whether Boetsch can keep this fight standing. His lack of agility hurts him, as he isn’t quick enough to be a legit sprawl-and-brawler. The Barbarian defends takedowns at a 58% rate, which is decent, but not great. Junior might not have the wrestling background of an NCAA wrestler, but he has built a very solid array of trips and sweeps.
UFC Odds Pick: Carlos Junior to win at -260
Against Ronaldo Souza, Boetsch was rendered helpless, falling victim to a kimura in just one round. Carlos Junior is not the monster that Jacare is, but his grappling skills are close enough that we feel confident in taking the Brazilian. The price is a bit high, but Boetsch’s toughness negates it as anything else but a straight play.
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UFC on FOX 29 takes place on Saturday, April 14, 2018 at the Gila River Arena in Glendale, Arizona. The card airs live on FOX starting 8 p.m. ET.
