Welterweight action fighters Carlos Condit (30-11, 15 KOs, 13 SUBs) and Alex Oliveira (17-5, 11 KOs, 3 SUBs) will meet at UFC on FOX 29 on Saturday, April 14, 2018 at the Gila River Arena in Glendale, Arizona. The card airs live on FOX starting 8 p.m. ET. Bet on the latest UFC odds and get the latest previews, predictions and picks at BookMaker.eu now!
No Matt Brown, no problem. Alex Oliveira has stepped in as a late injury replacement for “The Immortal”, agreeing to meet former interim welterweight champ Carlos Condit this Saturday at UFC on FOX 29 in Glendale, Arizona.
To be honest, this is probably an even tougher matchup for the popular Condit. Brown is an aging slugger with a ton of mileage on his body. Oliveira is a younger, more explosive striker with a more dynamic fighting style.
The pairing serves as the co-main event of UFC on FOX 29 in Glendale. And while neither guy is considered a contender at this point, the stakes are high. Condit is fighting to stay relevant filled with hungry young up-and-comers. Oliveira could earn the biggest win of his career.
So whose most likely to emerge from this bloody scrap with their hand raised? And of course, which way should you be betting? Let’s take a look at the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu, break down the matchup and make some value picks.
UFC Odds at BookMaker.eu
Carlos Condit +170
Alex Oliveira -200
Log into the the over/under on rounds
Striking Stats
Significant strikes landed per minute: Condit 3.7 / Oliveira 3.11
Accuracy: Condit 39.17% / Oliveira 53.29%
Significant strikes absorbed per minute: Condit 2.4 / Oliveira 2.12
Defense: Condit 57.63% / Oliveira 46.62%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Condit 0.55 / Oliveira 3.32
Takedown accuracy: Condit 52.94% / Oliveira 35.94%
Takedowns defended: Condit 38.83% / Oliveira 60%
Submission average: Condit 1.1 / Oliveira 0.87
Matchup Preview
Condit is in a 2-6 slide, and one has to question how much he’s got left. After losing a razor thin split decision to Robbie Lawler in a title fight, Condit openly wondered whether he even wanted to do the MMA thing anymore. Getting tied into a pretzel by Demian Maia and losing a listless decision in subsequent fights probably didn’t help.
Though he’s just 33, Condit has a ton of mileage on his body - plus he’s been a number of brutal wars. The fighter that we saw against Neil Magny was not the same Natural Born Killer we saw a few years ago - a creative, high-octane fighter with explosive eight-point striking. The volume striking is still there, but it seems less potent than before.
Oliveira is a not a guy you can drop your defenses against. Though unranked at 170 pounds, “Cowboy” has an established ability to instantly starch opponents. The Brazilian is a traditional Thai boxer with nuclear power in both fists, as all of his KO finishes but one have come by way of punches.
This projects to be a kickboxing match, as both men do their best work on the feet. The storyline here will be whether Condit’s pressure and pace can overcome Oliveira’s missile counterstrikes.
UFC Odds Pick: Condit to win at +170
While Condit is undeniably on the decline, Oliveira had barely over a week’s notice to get ready for this fight. That’s not a good sign for somebody who has struggled with cardio issues in the past. Condit comes out aggressive, keeps Cowboy from getting in his rhythm and takes the decision. Plus, you’re getting a great ‘dog price here.
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UFC on FOX 29 takes place on Saturday, April 14, 2018 at the Gila River Arena in Glendale, Arizona. The card airs live on FOX starting 8 p.m. ET.
