Women’s strawweight star Michelle “The Karate Hottie” Waterson (14-6, 3 KOs, 9 SUBs) will meet veteran Cortney Casey (7-5, 3 KOs, 3 SUBs) at UFC on FOX 29 on Saturday, April 14, 2018 at the Gila River Arena in Glendale, Arizona. The card airs live on FOX starting 8 p.m. ET. Bet on the latest UFC odds and get the latest previews, predictions and picks at BookMaker.eu now!
Michelle Waterson is a tough spot. “The Karate Hottie” is one of the most recognizable stars in the most popular women’s division, but back-to-back losses against it’s elite fighters suggest that she’s not championship material. Faced with the first losing streak of her career, Waterson is in a must-win spot heading into her Saturday matchup against Cortney Casey.
The UFC is putting Waterson in a position to win, lowering her level of competition and giving her an opponent that’s barely over .500. But since The Karate Hottie is a small strawweight to begin with, wins will always be harder to come by when compared to bigger fighters like Claudia Gadelha or Joanna Jedrzejczyk.
So is there an opportunity to score with a clear underdog here? Or should you be betting on Waterson to turn it around against a midtier fighter? Let’s take a look at the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu and break down your best betting options.
UFC Odds at BookMaker.eu
Michelle Waterson +100
Cortney Casey -120
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Matchup Preview
As usual, Waterson will give up a size advantage to her opponent. And in this case, it’ll be even more pronounced - Casey is one of the more physically imposing fighters at 115 pounds. And recently, she’s starting to impose her physicality more consistently. Training with the MMA Lab has sharpened her skills, but there are still a lot of areas where Casey could tighten up.
Casey does her best work as the aggressor, pressing forward to land thudding strikes, than pressing opponents into the cage for some dirty boxing. She keeps up a high striking rate, landing 4.76 strikes per minute, but that opens up holes defensively - she absorbs a high 4.1 strikes per minute.
The 30-year old’s wrestling needs some work, but she’s gotten better at dragging girls to the mat to push an aggressive grappling game. But Casey’s best quality is her scrappiness. She will eat shots and return them in kind. She’s constantly trying to clinch and soften girls up with punches. If she’s on the mat, Casey just doesn’t stop scrambling.
But is that enough to pull off the upset against Waterson? Living up to her nickname, “The Karate Hottie” loves to throw flashy kicks, but doesn’t have the power to end fights with them. Instead, she mainly uses them as a method to get into the clinch, where her frenetic activity quickly wears her foes down. Once locked up, Waterson is particularly adept at cleverly taking the back.
Waterson’s strength is catching quick subs, and that’s usually predated by Waterson forcing scrambles. It’s in these moments of chaos that she thrives, as her flexibility and athleticism allows her to chase high-risk submission attempts. With nine submissions in 14 career wins, Waterson has to be taken seriously in grappling exchanges.
UFC Odds Pick: Casey to win at -120
It’s not that we don’t like Waterson, but she’s just too easy to bet against. . Even when she’s the more talented fighter in the matchup, Waterson is always in danger of being muscled around. Considering Casey’s newfound aggression and physicality, her price at nearly even odds is too good to pass up.
UFC Odds Pick: Fight doesn’t go to decision
While we generally advise to bet the rounds over in strawweight matchup, these girls tend to find ways to finish before then. All but two of Waterson’s fights have been finishes, and Casey has stoppages in all her victories but one.
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UFC on FOX 29 takes place on Saturday, April 14, 2018 at the Gila River Arena in Glendale, Arizona. The card airs live on FOX starting 8 p.m. ET.
