One of the most competitive fights on the UFC Fight Pass portion of the preliminary card at UFC on FOX 29 is expected to be the bout between Shana Dobson and Lauren Mueller. Dobson is 3-1 in her career and coming off a win over Ariel Beck last December, while Mueller is 4-0 and coming off a win against Kelly McGill-Velasco. This fight is one of six on the UFC Fight Pass portion of the preliminary card, leading up to a four-fight main card on FOX, featuring Dustin Poirier vs. Justin Gaethje. Let’s look at Dobson vs. Mueller and UFC picks.
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Shana Dobson (3-1, 1-0 UFC)
Dobson made her UFC debut last December and she was able to get past Ariel Beck. Dobson said on UFC.com that staying calm was the big key for her in the win over Beck. “Going into the fight, a big thing that really did get rid of the jitters was being on TUF and having that exposure,” Dobson said. “We fought 20 feet from Dana White. We fought in front of a very important crowd and in front of millions of viewers.”
Dobson said she is an improved fighter from the one that beat Beck. “I think we’re going to see an evolved form of me,” she said. “Master Lloyd looked at what was working and what we could adjust, and what we did was take what’s working, amplify that, and take what we needed to adjust and hit it hard. There was a big gap I needed to close with my ground work, so we’ve been hitting that hard.”
Lauren Mueller (4-0, UFC debut)
Mueller won her first three fights in the Gladiator Challenge Series and then got a spot in Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series 8. She was able to get past Kelly McGill-Velasco, winning by unanimous decision. Mueller has gone to a decision in three of her four career fights.
UFC Picks
The UFC odds on this fight are listed as a pick. I don’t know that Dobson’s win over Beck tells us anything, while Mueller has looked good in her four fights. The question is whether or not Dobson has the power to finish Mueller. It is hard to know because neither of these fighters has much experience. Dobson has not proven she can handle a ground and pound game and that is where Mueller could have the edge. Mueller is the more physical fighter and I expect her to find a way to get Dobson to the mat. I think Mueller will be able to grind out the win, so I will take her to win this bout. I also think there could be some value in taking this fight to go the distance, as neither of these two fighters has shown a great ability to finish, so I will play the rounds to go over the total.
UFC on FOX 29 takes place on Saturday, April 14, 2018 at Gila River Arena in Glendale, Arizona, with a lightweight match between Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje as the event headliner. There are a total of four fights on the main card on FOX and a total of 10 on the preliminary card with four on FOX and six on UFC Fight Pass.
Main Card (FOX)
Lightweight – Dustin Poirier -145 vs. Justin Gaethje
Welterweight – Alex Oliveira -210 vs. Carlos Condit
Middleweight – Israel Adesanya -260 vs. Marvin Vettori
Women’s Strawweight – Cortney Casey -125 vs. Michelle Waterson
Preliminary Card (FOX)
Middleweight – Antonio Carlos Junior -270 vs. Tim Boetsch
Welterweight – Muslim Salikhov -165 vs. Ricky Rainey
Flyweight – Wilson Reis -140 vs. John Moraga
Middleweight – Brad Tavares -140 vs. Krzysztof Jotko
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)
Lightweight – Gilbert Burns -500 vs. Dan Moret
Women’s Flyweight – Shana Dobson -115 vs. Lauren Mueller
Welterweight – Dhiego Lima -115 vs. Yushin Okami
Heavyweight – Arjan Bhullar -365 vs. Adam Wieczorek
Bantamweight – Matthew Lopez -130 vs. Alejandro Perez
Bantamweight – Luke Sanders -420 vs. Patrick Williams
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