Islam Makhachev is a huge favorite over Kajan Johnson at UFC on FOX 30 on Saturday night in Calgary, Alberta, Canada. This event is one of four on the preliminary card on FOX. Johnson is 23-12-1 in his career, while Makhachev is 15-1 in his career. There are a total of four fights on the main card on FOX, with the headliner a bout between Eddie Alvarez and Dustin Poirier. There are also a total of nine fights on the preliminary card with four on FOX and five on UFC Fight Pass. Let’s look at the bout between Johnson and Makhachev and UFC predictions.
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Kajan Johnson (23-12-1, 4-1 UFC)
Johnson came into the UFC with a record of 19-11-1 and he has four wins and one loss in the UFC. He defeated Zhang Lipeng by unanimous decision, Naoyuki Kotani by unanimous decision, Adriano Martins by KO, and Stevie Ray by split decision, while losing to Tae Hyun Bang by KO. Johnson has been a pro since 2002 and has 11 wins by submission and four by TKO/KO. He is on a four fight winning streak and has 10 first round finishes.
Johnson said this to fightful.com about his upcoming fight against Makhachev, "I think I match up very good against him, I think we're kind of the antithesis to each other's styles. I think that it’s a difficult fight for me, but I'm as equally a difficult fight for him. Everybody thinks that he's just going to come in and wrestle me and destroy me, but people sleep on my ground game. I'm not really worried about going to the ground with Islam Makhachev, I know a lot of people probably think I'm pretty crazy by saying that. It’s not really a big deal, the guys good...he's very good at what he does...he's very good at what he does. There are a lot of things that he really doesn't do, he's very well rounded...but there are holes.”
Islam Makhachev (15-1, 4-1 UFC)
Makhachev came into the UFC with a record of 11-0 and he has four wins and one loss in the UFC. He defeated Leo Kuntz by submission, Chris Wade by unanimous decision, Nik Lentz by unanimous decision, and Gleison Tibau by KO, while losing to Adriano Martins by KO. Makhachev has been a pro since 2010 and has three wins by TKO/KO and six by submission. He is on a three fight winning streak and has five first round finishes.
Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Johnson 2.43 / Makhachev 2.33
Accuracy: Johnson 45% / Makhachev 63%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Johnson 1.70/ Makhachev 0.74
Defense: Johnson 61% / Makhachev 65%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Johnson 1.99 / Makhachev 4.46
Accuracy: Johnson 37% / Makhachev 85%
Takedowns defended: Johnson 66% / Makhachev 100%
Submission average: Johnson 0.2 / Makhachev 1.1
UFC Predictions
It is hard to make any case for taking Johnson, but the price on Makhachev is simply too high for me. I will avoid picking a side and instead look at the total. The combined first round finishes for the two fighters are 15, so I will take the rounds to go under the total.
UFC on FOX 30 takes place on Saturday, July 28, 2018 at the Scotiabank Saddledome in Calgary, Alberta, Canada. The main card has four fights on FOX, featuring Eddie Alvarez taking on Dustin Poirier. There are nine fights on the preliminary card with four on FOX and five on UFC Fight Pass.
Main Card (FOX)
Lightweight – Dustin Poirier -165 vs. Eddie Alvarez
Featherweight – Jose Aldo -125 vs. Jeremy Stephens
Women’s Strawweight – Joanna Jedrzejczyk -290 vs. Tecia Torres
Lightweight – Olivier Aubin-Mercier -135 vs. Alexander Hernandez
Preliminary Card (FOX)
Welterweight – Alex Morono -115 vs. Jordan Mein
Lightweight – Islam Makhachev -700 vs. Kajan Johnson
Featherweight – Hakeem Dawodu -385 vs. Austin Arnett
Light Heavyweight - Gadzhimurad Antigulov -165 vs. Ion Cu?elaba
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)
Lightweight – John Makdessi -180 vs. Ross Pearson
Women’s Flyweight - Katlyn Chookagian -170 vs. Alexis Davis
Flyweight - Matheus Nicolau -190 vs. Dustin Ortiz
Women’s Strawweight - Nina Ansaroff -145 vs. Randa Markos
Lightweight – Devin Powell -130 vs. Álvaro Herrera
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