BookMaker.eu is offering odds on most of the Senate elections. There has been action already from bettors on nearly every race and most of it has gone in direction of the Republicans. Let’s take a look at the latest Election odds at BookMaker and also look at how those odds compare to the odds put out by Nate Silver and FiveThirtyEight and some of the latest numbers from Real Clear Politics.
Bet 2018 Election Odds at BookMaker.eu
Will the U.S. House and Senate be Controlled by the Same Party after the Election?
Yes +125
No -155
Party that will Control the Senate after November Elections
Democrats +450
Republicans -700
The latest numbers from Real Clear Politics have Republicans looking solid or “safe” to retain 50 seats in the Senate. There are six “tossup” races with Republicans leading three and Democrats leading three. FiveThirtyEight gives the Republicans an 82.4% chance of keeping control of the Senate. FiveThirtyEight is projecting the Republicans to end up with 52 seats, while the Democrats get 48. That would be a gain of one seat for Republicans.
Party that will Control the House after November Elections
Democrats -239
Republicans +187
The latest numbers from Real Clear Politics show that Democrats have 205 seats that are “safe”, 14 that are likely to go Democrat and 18 that “lean” Democrat. Republicans have 199 seats that are “safe”, 19 seats that are likely Republican and 26 that are leaning Republican. There are a total of 31 seats that are considered toss-ups. If those numbers are correct, Democrats would need to win just 13 of the 31 toss-up seats to get to the majority of 218 in the House. Silver’s numbers have Democrats with an 84% chance of winning control of the House. Those odds are vastly different than the current odds at BookMaker, as those odds have Democrats favored by just over 2-1 to win control of the House.
If you are looking to bet these props, the value is on the No at -155 for the Same Party to control both the Senate and the House. It is looking like Republicans will hang onto the Senate, while Democrats appear to have the edge in the House race. If things go as expected, the No at -155 would be a winner for the same party to control both the Senate and House. If you think that the Republicans can pull off a surprise and hang onto the House, the +187 is a far better bet than the Yes on the Same Party to retain control at +125.
Senate Races
Arizona
Kyrsten Sinema –D +107
Martha McSally –R -137
Florida
Bill Nelson –D -166
Rick Scott –R +130
Indiana
Joe Donnelly –D -110
Mike Braun –R -120
Missouri
Claire McCaskill –D +130
Josh Hawley –R -165
Montana
Jon Tester –D -260
Matt Rosendale –R +200
Nebraska
Deb Fischer –R -5000
Jane Raybould –D +1400
Nevada
Dean Heller –R -135
Jacky Rosen –D +105
New Jersey
Robert Menendez –D -500
Bog Hugin –R +350
North Dakota
Kevin Cramer –R -850
Heidi Heitkamp –D +550
Tennessee
Marsha Blackburn –R -450
Phil Bredesen –D +315
Texas
Ted Cruz –R -550
Beto O'Rourke –D +400
West Virginia
Joe Manchin III –D -500
Patrick Morrisey –R +350
Wisconsin
Tammy Baldwin –D -1829
Leah Vukmir –R +911
Looking at the Senate odds, there are some differences from the projections of FiveThirtyEight and the latest odds at BookMaker. It should be noted that pundits who projected the U.S. election two years ago, including FiveThirtyEight heavily favored Hillary Clinton. Could FiveThirtyEight be wrong in favoring so many Democrats again in 2018?
In almost every case, FiveThirtyEight lists the Democrats as bigger favorites than the current odds at BookMaker. For example, the BookMaker odds have Republican Martha McSally favored to win in Arizona, while FiveThirtyEight has Sinema as about a 2-1 favorite.
There is a major difference in the Indiana Senate odds, as BookMaker has the race a pick, while FiveThirtyEight has Donnelly as more than a 3-1 favorite. There is a difference in opinion in the odds on the Missouri race as well, with BookMaker listing Hawley the favorite, while FiveThirtyEight has McCaskill favored.
Do you agree with FiveThirtyEight in favoring the Democrats in the 2018 midterm election or do you believe Republicans have a chance to surprise like they did in 2016?
Check out the latest U.S. Election odds and make your wagers at BookMaker Sportsbook!
