The No. 11 USC Trojans play their first ever Big Ten Conference game when they take on the No. 18 Michigan Wolverines in a battle of ranked foes. The previous seven meetings between the storied programs all were played at and in the Rose Bowl, a game whose roots tied the Big Ten and Pac-12 together for years. That alliance stayed loosely intact through the BCS and CFP years and dissolved when the Pac-12 did. It’s odd to say but this is a now a conference game, and we’ll get that a lot as matchups that rarely if ever occurred in the past are now commonplace.
In preparation for their trip to the Big House, Troy had a bye in Week 3 after pummeling Utah State 48-0. USC opened the season with an impressive win over LSU and is 2-0 against the spread. Meanwhile, the Wolverines rebounded from a crushing home loss to Texas with a less than impressive win over Arkansas State when they were favored at the Bitcoin Sportsbook by more than three touchdowns. For the second time in three games UM is a home underdog catching 4.5-points on the early line.
College Football Betting Lines
USC at Michigan Betting Lines
USC Trojans -4.5 / ML -188
Michigan Wolverines +4.5 / ML +167
Total 44.5
I still have some concerns about USC even after starting with two wins. And winning in the first half of the season has been a theme under Lincoln Riley. In each of the previous two seasons under Riley the Trojans won their first six games only to go a combined 7-8 in their remaining contests. We’re still within the time frame of USC being really good and the odds reflect that. Laying 4.5-points is also an indication the defending national champs have some issues.
Following their season-opening win over LSU, the Trojans didn’t let up in a 48-0 trouncing of Utah State. One of the worst defenses in the country a season ago allowed fewer than 200 total yards in posting its first shutout since 2011. Miller Moss has taken the reins flawlessly from No. 1 overall NFL draft pick Caleb Williams directing an offense with playmakers all over the field. Filling in for Williams in last season’s bowl win over Louisville, Moss threw for 372 yards and six TDs.
In two games this season, more like a game and a half since he sat most of the second half against Utah State, Moss has completed nearly 73 percent of his throws for 607 yards and two TDs without a pick. The Trojans boast the seventh-best passing attack in the country and average nearly 500 yards.
It’s clear the Wolverines are much different than their undefeated national championship squad from a season ago. The past few years they ranked among the best in yards and points allowed but enter this contest ranked 65th in total defense and 64th in scoring defense. Quinn Ewers exposed them in Week 2 throwing for 246 yards and three TDs and the Longhorns amassed nearly 400 total yards. And Arkansas State had some success with Timmy McClain tossing a pair of TD passes as the Red Wolves scored 15 fourth quarter points to make things interesting.
We have to talk about Michigan’s offense with a QB change perhaps providing a spark for a struggling group. Many viewed it as a surprise when Davis Warren was named the starter, but he failed to effectively move the team. He averaged just 148 passing yards and threw six interceptions in the first three outings, including three picks last week in a 28-18 win over Arkansas State. So Alex Orji gets the nod on Saturday looking to revive an offense that ranks 99th nationally in scoring and 105th in total yards. Orji is a dual-threat that could give USC’s defense a problem. But like the man he’s replacing, Orji has little experience with just seven career pass attempts, though he is averaging nearly six yards on 31 career carries.
This is a good test for D’Anton Lynn’s defense and they’ve looked good in two wins. I don’t see UM doing enough against them and the Trojans will use their skill players to cover the spread. I also think the total is low giving me confidence to back the OVER.
USC at Michigan Same Game Parlay Picks
USC -4.5
USC / Michigan OVER 44.5
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