After a taste of college football in Week 0, the betting season takes off with an intense schedule that features five straight days exciting action in Week 1. While a number of teams ease their way into a new season, that isn’t the case for two prominent programs. The USC Trojans play their first game as a new member of the Big Ten taking on SEC powerhouse the LSU Tigers at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas in the only game on the CFB slate for Sunday, Sept. 1.
Led by Heisman Trophy winning quarterbacks, the teams were offensive machines in 2023 sparking a lot of interest on the OVER at Crypto sportsbooks. With Jayden Daniels at the helm the Tigers led the country in scoring with 45.5 points per game. No. 1 overall NFL draft pick Caleb Williams had USC third in scoring with nearly 42 points a game. And as good as they were on offense, the teams were equally bad preventing opponents from scoring, hence the total surfacing at a lofty 64.5. Both QBs are off slinging it in the NFL and the teams don’t have the experienced playmakers they did a season ago, but they both have something to prove.
College Football Betting Lines
USC vs. LSU Betting Lines
USC Trojans +4.5 / ML +170
LSU Tigers -4.5 / ML -192
Total 64.5
Backing the OVER on a CFB same game parlay looks like a good idea. LSU closed last season playing above the closing total in nine of their last 10 games putting up ridiculous offensive numbers. However, they don’t have Daniels at the controls and two receivers from a year ago were also drafted into the NFL. I doubt the Tigers will be as explosive and with several new players at key positions it could take some time for them to acclimate to the system. They will score because that’s what they do, and Garrett Nussmeier has experience.
With Daniels opting out of last season’s bowl game, Nussmeier threw for 395 yards and three TDs in a 35-31 win over Wisconsin, which cashed the OVER on the CFB betting line. While Nussmeier lacks experience at least he has more than USC’s starter Miller Moss. Like his counterpart, Moss had a breakthrough in last year’s bowl victory over Louisville going 23 of 33 for 372 yards and six TDs. However, if you take those stats out of the equation, Moss has attempted just 59 passes in his collegiate career. And he also lacks the playmakers that Williams had at his disposal.
By the end of the season the teams could very easily rank among the national leaders in many offensive categories. I just think that an early game in which the squads feel they must win in order to have a crack at the expanded college football playoff will add additional pressure to them.
I also believe the teams will be better at preventing opponents from marching up and down the field. In the case of the Trojans they’d better be. At times last year it looked like they were playing with nine defenders on the field. They finished 121st nationally out of 133 teams in scoring defense while surrendering nearly 433 yards a game. New coordinator D’Anton Lynn is tasked with changing the fortunes of USC’s defense after successfully transforming the group at crosstown rival UCLA.
LSU also brings in a new defensive coordinator in Blake Baker, who helped Missouri to an 11-win season in 2023 behind the SEC’s third-best unit. Statistically the group wasn’t as bad as USC’s last year, but it was among the worst in the history of the program.
Both teams have experienced offensive lines which will help them score points. However, improved defenses will prevent the game from going over the total. Also, with both squads undergoing significant turnover the game should be close throughout. And because of that I’m backing USC and the points as part of my CFB same game parlay.
USC vs. LSU Same Game Parlay Picks
USC +4.5
USC / LSU UNDER 64.5
$100 bet to win $269
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