There’s a chance we get the much anticipated matchup of the top two picks from the 2024 NFL Draft on Sunday when Caleb Williams and the Chicago Bears take on the Washington Commanders. I say there’s a chance because Jayden Daniels exited the last game with a rib injury and the club has him listed as day-to-day. The status of Daniels impacted the betting odds at the Bitcoin Sportsbook with Chicago going from a slight underdog to a 1-point favorite. The Bears swept a three-game homstand to improve to 4-2 on year, but they’ve lost four in a row on the road dating back to last season going 0-3-1 ATS in that span.
NFL Betting Lines
Bears at Commanders Betting Lines
Chicago Bears -1 / ML -130
Washington Commanders +1 / ML +110
Over / Under 43.5
Thanks in large part to the guy selected behind Williams in the April draft, the team formerly known as the Redskins sits atop the NFC East as we approach the midway point in the NFL season. The most recent Heisman Trophy winner has done it all completing a NFL best 75.6 percent of his passes for 1,410 yards with six TDs and only two interceptions in 168 pass attempts. In addition he’s rushed for 372 yards and four scores helping his club lead the NFL with an average of 31.1 points.
Over the previous seven seasons Washington has more division titles and playoff appearances than it has winning seasons. They haven’t finished a year above .500 since going 8-7-1 in 2016. They did win the NFC East and lost a wild card playoff game in 2020 with a regular season record of 7-9. For the sake of long-term success I doubt Daniels will play on Sunday. Sometimes you have to lose the battle to win the war.
Backup Marcus Mariota is a good option. The former first round draft pick has been around the league for several years with varying degrees of success. He replaced Daniels last week and completed 18 of 23 for 205 yards and two TDs. Mariota hasn’t seen a lot of action the last few years so he should be well rested. However, there is a decline in what the offense can do with Mariota as opposed to Daniels.
Chicago presents a bigger problem defensively for the Commanders than Carolina did. The Bears actually have a group that can stop opponents allowing an average of 292.0 yards and 5.0 yards per play, both fifth-best in the NFL. They also do a good job harassing quarterbacks with a QB rating of 69.6 the best mark in the league. The Bears also average 3.0 sacks a game good for eighth.
After a slow start to the season Williams and the Bears offense have apparently found their footing. In wins over the Rams, Carolina and Jacksonville they averaged 31.7 points and covered the spread and cashed the OVER in every contest. Williams has been most effective in those games completing better than 74 percent of his passes with seven TDs and one interception.
The Bears have also received better production on the ground in recent games helping diversify the offense and take pressure off Williams. D’Andre Swift is averaging nearly 4.8 yards per carry over the last three games with three TDs. He averaged less than two yards a carry with zero scores in the team’s first three outings.
The status of Daniels changes the entire outlook on this game. I’m going on the thought that he doesn’t play and Mariota won’t have the same success against the Bears defense. Washington hasn’t been stellar at stopping opponents and Williams has shown why he was taken first overall with his recent play. I like the Bears and will happily give a point. I also see more points on the board than oddsmakers predict so I’m backing the OVER as well.
Bears at Commanders Same Game Parlay Picks
Bears -1
Bears / Commanders OVER 43.5
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