Charles Oliveira is favored against Michael Chandler at UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic on Saturday, November 16 in New York City, New York. This event is one of five fights on the main pay-per-view card. Oliveira is 34-10 in his career, while Chandler is 23-8 in his career. There are a total of 14 fights, with five on Pay-Per-View, five on ESPNews/FX/Hulu/ESPN+ and four on ESPN+/UFC Fight Pass at UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic. Let’s look at the bout between Oliveira and Chandler and UFC predictions.
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic takes place at the Madison Square Garden in New York City, New York on Saturday, November 16 with 14 fights, with five on Pay-Per-View, five on ESPNews/FX/Hulu/ESPN+ and four on ESPN+/UFC Fight Pass.
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic Betting
Charles Oliveira (34-10, 22-10 UFC)
Oliveira came into the UFC with a record of 12-0 and he has 22 wins and 10 losses in the UFC. In his last six fights, he has four wins and two losses. He defeated Michael Chandler by TKO, Dustin Poirier by rear-naked choke submission, Justin Gaethje by rear-naked choke submission, and Beneil Dariush by TKO; while losing to Islam Makhachev by arm-triangle choke submission and Arman Tsarukyan by split decision. Oliveira has been a pro since 2008 and he has 10 wins by TKO/KO and 21 by submission. He has 16 first round finishes.
Oliveira said this to sherdog.com about his upcoming fight against Chandler, “I think he’s a tough guy. A guy who always pushes forward like myself. I don’t want to walk back. I want to push forward as well. I want to go for the win, and I want to go for the win soon. First of all, I don’t think it matters if someone gave it a 10-8. Because I didn’t take it to the judges. I finished him, so it doesn’t matter whether someone gave a 10-8 or not. And I want to be that Charles that pushes forward. I want to impose my game. I want to get into my game. I want to be the Charles from the past, the one that’s always pushing forward, the one that’s not afraid to roll it a little bit and try to just go for the heel or something. The guy who’s just going to get into positions and not afraid to make things happen. That’s the Charles Oliveira they want, the guy who’s the champion that everybody knows.”
Michael Chandler (23-8, 2-3 UFC)
Chandler came into the UFC with a record of 21-5 and he has two wins and three losses in the UFC. He defeated Dan Hooker by TKO and Tony Ferguson by KO; while losing to Charles Oliveira by TKO, Justin Gaethje by unanimous decision, and Dustin Poirier by rear-naked choke submission. Chandler has been a pro since 2009 and he has 11 wins by TKO/KO and seven by submission. He has 13 first round finishes.
Chandler said this to sherdog.com about his upcoming fight against Oliveira, “When I smell a finish about to happen, I am going to slowly continue to put pressure on instead of trying to rush. The way it was always supposed to be. Sometimes you got to take a loss to put yourself back up. Then overcome the odds and right a wrong. I think that’s what this is going to be. There is not a man alive at 155 pounds that can hang with me for 25 minutes if I fight composed and smart. That’s who I am now. And I’m excited to go out there and show that on Nov. 16.”
Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Oliveira 3.39 /Chandler 4.89
Striking Accuracy: Oliveira 53% /Chandler 46%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Oliveira 3.20/Chandler 4.58
Defense: Oliveira 51% /Chandler 46%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Oliveira 2.17/Chandler 2.17
Takedown Accuracy: Oliveira 40%/Chandler 38%
Takedowns defended: Oliveira 55%/Chandler 71%
Submission average: Oliveira 2.8/Chandler 0.9
UFC Picks
These two met about three years ago and it was an entertaining fight for as long as it lasted, as Oliveira came back from the brink of defeat in round one and beat Chandler, winning by TKO in the second round. Oliveira is listed as more than a 2-1 favorite in UFC betting odds to win the rematch. Chandler nearly won their first meeting and he is definitely capable of winning this fight and at odds of more than 2-1 he is at least worth a small play because of the price. The rounds option, however, may be the better play. I noted what Chandler said in that he will be more cautious this time around and that should mean a longer fight. They went into the 2nd round last time and the rounds option is listed at just 1.5 for this fight. I’ll go over the rounds total for the top play in this fight.
| DATE |
FIGHTERS |
MONEY LINE |
| 11/16 |
Stipe Miocic |
+456 |
| Jon Jones |
-700 |
| 11/16 |
Michael Chandler |
+204 |
| Charles Oliveira |
-265 |
| 11/16 |
Karine Silva |
-270 |
| Viviane Araujo |
+207 |
| 11/16 |
Paul Craig |
+658 |
| Bo Nickal |
-1200 |
| 11/16 |
Eryk Anders |
-132 |
| Chris Weidman |
+102 |
| 11/16 |
James Llontop |
+545 |
| Mauricio Ruffy |
-900 |
| 11/16 |
Marcus McGhee |
-135 |
| Jonathan Martinez |
+105 |
| 11/16 |
Damon Jackson |
-185 |
| Jim Miller |
+146 |
| 11/16 |
Oban Elliott |
-250 |
| Bassil Hafez |
+194 |
| 11/16 |
Ramiz Brahimaj |
-110 |
| Mickey Gall |
-120 |
| 11/16 |
Eduarda Moura |
+115 |
| Veronica Hardy |
-145 |
| 11/16 |
Jhonata Diniz |
+120 |
| Marcin Tybura |
-150 |
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