Umar Nurmagomedov is favored against Merab Dvalishvili at UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Tsarukyan 2 on Saturday, January 18 in Inglewood, California. This event is one of five fights on the main pay-per-view card. Dvalishvili is 18-4 in his career, including 11-2 in the UFC, while Nurmagomedov is 18-0 in his career, including 6-0 in the UFC. There are a total of 14 fights, with five on Pay-Per-View, four on ESPNews/Disney+/ESPN+ and five on Disney+/ESPN+/UFC Fight Pass at UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Tsarukyan 2. Let’s look at the bout between Dvalishvili and Nurmagomedov and UFC predictions.
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Tsarukyan 2 takes place at Intuit Dome in Inglewood, California on Saturday, January 18 with 14 fights, with five on Pay-Per-View, four on ESPNews/Disney+/ESPN+ and five on Disney+/ESPN+/UFC Fight Pass.
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Tsarukyan Betting
Merab Dvalishvili (18-4, 11-2 UFC)
Dvalishvili came into the UFC with a record of 7-2 and he has 11 wins and two losses in the UFC. In his last six fights, he has six wins and no losses. He defeated Cody Stamann by unanimous decision, Marlon Moraes by TKO, José Aldo by unanimous decision, Petr Yan by unanimous decision, Henry Cejudo by unanimous decision, and Sean O'Malley by unanimous decision. Dvalishvili’s last loss in his career was against Ricky Simón by technical submission in April of 2018. Dvalishvili has been a pro since 2014 and he has three wins by TKO/KO and one by submission. He has one first round finish.
Umar Nurmagomedov (18-0, 6-0 UFC)
Nurmagomedov came into the UFC with a record of 12-0 and he has six wins and no losses in the UFC. He defeated Sergey Morozov by technical submission, Brian Kelleher by rear-naked choke submission, Nate Maness by unanimous decision, Raoni Barcelos by KO, Bekzat Almakhan by unanimous decision, and Cory Sandhagen by unanimous decision. Nurmagomedov has been a pro since 2016 and he has two wins by TKO/KO and seven by submission. He has five first round finishes.
Nurmagomedov said this to ufc.com about his upcoming fight against Dvalishvili, “He knows other guys, he will beat. With me, it's going to be hard. That's why he tried to be champion for a long time. He wanted to fight with O’Malley, with Petr Yan or someone else because these guys are easy money. Me? No. With me, you have to go into deep waters. With me, it's going to be a long night. I will not give him takedowns. He will not control me. I have good skills, striking skills, and I can make for him a lot of problems. But when we go inside the cage, I will not think he's scared of me, I will know there's a man who will try to beat me. I'm the man who will try to smash him, and it's going to be a battle. He can beat me – it can happen. It's not going to break me. I will be the same Umar. A fight is fight. Everybody can lose. Everybody can win. I can’t imagine how he will beat me. “How? Can he hold me? OK, maybe he will take me down one time, but he’ll have to hold me there. He can’t. It’s not going to be like he did (in his previous fights). I can wrestle, too. Don’t forget about that. But I can finish the fight. If you give me your back, I’m going to choke you. Be careful! It’s going to be cocky if I say he’s easy money. I think he is not. He’s a good fighter. But the hardest challenge in my division, I think, is Cory (Sandhagen). That fight was the hardest in my life.”
Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: Dvalishvili 4.35 /Nurmagomedov 4.46
Striking Accuracy: Dvalishvili 42% /Nurmagomedov 63%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Dvalishvili 2.31/Nurmagomedov 1.36
Defense: Dvalishvili 56% /Nurmagomedov 63%
Grappling Stats
Takedown average: Dvalishvili 6.09/Nurmagomedov 3.98
Takedown Accuracy: Dvalishvili 36%/Nurmagomedov 50%
Takedowns defended: Dvalishvili 80%/Nurmagomedov 100%
Submission average: Dvalishvili 0.3/Nurmagomedov 0.4
UFC Picks
Nurmagomedov is more than a 3-1 favorite in UFC betting odds to win this fight and I guess it is deserved, but Dvalishvili is no easy mark. I don’t like laying big money in UFC betting that often, so I am not taking Nurmagomedov and it is hard for me to go against an unbeaten fighter unless I have a really good reason and I don’t, so I am not taking Dvalishvili. The rounds are listed at 4.5 and the over is also highly priced at UFC odds of nearly 3-1. Both of these fighters are extremely tough and I don’t see a finish happening so I will go over the rounds total in this fight.
| DATE | FIGHTERS | MONEY LINE |
| 01/18 | Arman Tsarukyan | +292 |
| Islam Makhachev | -400 |
| 01/18 | Umar Nurmagomedov | -326 |
| Merab Dvalishvili | +245 |
| 01/18 | Renato Moicano | -174 |
| Beneil Dariush | +138 |
| 01/18 | Jamahal Hill | -135 |
| Jiri Prochazka | +105 |
| 01/18 | Reinier De Ridder | -125 |
| Kevin Holland | -105 |
| 01/18 | Raoni Barcelos | +675 |
| Payton Talbott | -1250 |
| 01/18 | Serghei Spivac | +325 |
| Jailton Almeida | -455 |
| 01/18 | Diego Ferreira | +201 |
| Grant Dawson | -260 |
| 01/18 | Ailin Perez | +211 |
| Karol Rosa | -275 |
| 01/18 | Muin Gafurov | +379 |
| Rinya Nakamura | -550 |
| 01/18 | Bernardo Sopaj | -310 |
| Ricky Turcios | +235 |
| 01/18 | Clayton Carpenter | +245 |
| Tagir Ulanbekov | -326 |
Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker Sportsbook! Real-time spreads, totals, props, and money lines are all available so start betting with BookMaker today.
Check out the latest odds at BookMaker
