UFC 309: John Jones vs. Stipe Miocic Odds

Jon Jones is heavily favored against Stipe Miocic at UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic on Saturday, November 16 in New York City, New York. This event is one of five fights on the main pay-per-view card. Jones is 27-1 in his career, while Miocic is 20-4 in his career. There are a total of 14 fights, with five on Pay-Per-View, five on ESPNews/FX/Hulu/ESPN+ and four on ESPN+/UFC Fight Pass at UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic. Let’s look at the bout between Jones and Miocic and UFC predictions.

UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic takes place at the Madison Square Garden in New York City, New York on Saturday, November 16 with 14 fights, with five on Pay-Per-View, five on ESPNews/FX/Hulu/ESPN+ and four on ESPN+/UFC Fight Pass.

UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic Betting

Jon Jones (27-1, 21-1 UFC)

Jones came into the UFC with a record of 6-0 and he has 21 wins and one loss in the UFC. In his last six fights, he has six wins and no losses. He defeated Ovince Saint Preux by unanimous decision, Alexander Gustafsson by KO, Anthony Smith by unanimous decision, Thiago Santos by split decision, Dominick Reyes by unanimous decision, and Ciryl Gane by guillotine choke submission. Jones’ only loss in his career was against Matt Hamill by disqualification in December of 2009. Jones has been a pro since 2008 and he has 10 wins by TKO/KO and seven by submission. He has eight first round finishes.

Stipe Miocic (20-4, 14-4 UFC)

Miocic came into the UFC with a record of 6-0 and he has 14 wins and four losses in the UFC. In his last six fights, he has four wins and two losses. He defeated Junior dos Santos by TKO, Francis Ngannou by unanimous decision, Daniel Cormier by TKO, and Daniel Cormier by unanimous decision; while losing to Daniel Cormier by KO and Francis Ngannou by KO. Miocic has been a pro since 2010 and he has 15 wins by TKO/KO and five by decision. He has nine first round finishes.

Michael Bisping said this to mmaweekly.com about the upcoming fight between Jones and Miocic, "I'm telling you right now, everyone is overlooking Stipe Miocic, and these people are absolutely out of their minds. Jon Jones is a -600 favorite. Stipe Miocic is a +440 underdog... This guy is a massive underdog. He is being overlooked, disrespected, and completely forgotten about in the heavyweight division. People are underestimating Stipe Miocic, and why is that? It's because the last time we saw Stipe Miocic was UFC 260, March 2021 at the UFC Apex when he went up against Francis Ngannou. We all know how that ended. That's what people remember. This sport is about what have you done for me lately. People forget everything Stipe did. People forget that Stipe, on paper, is the greatest heavyweight to ever fight in the UFC's octagon. He defended the belt three times which is something nobody else has ever done.”

Striking Stats

Strikes landed per minute: Jones 4.29 /Miocic 4.82

Striking Accuracy: Jones 57% /Miocic 53%

Strikes absorbed per minute: Jones 2.22/Miocic 3.82

Defense: Jones 64% /Miocic 54%

Grappling Stats

Takedown average: Jones 1.93/Miocic 1.86

Takedown Accuracy: Jones 45%/Miocic 34%

Takedowns defended: Jones 95%/Miocic 68%

Submission average: Jones 0.5/Miocic 0.0

UFC Picks

I don’t think there is any doubt that Jones is the best UFC fighter in history. He has simply dominated his opponents for a long time and I can’t argue with him being favored over anyone. Whether he should be a 7-1 favorite is another story. Miocic is not some slouch off the street; he is the former heavyweight champion. I am not laying 7-1 on anyone but I am sure not going against Jones. There are questions about the layoff for both fighters, as Jones has fought just once in four years and Miocic has not fought since losing to Ngannou more than three years ago.

Since I am not taking either fighter, it is the rounds we have to consider. I know that both fighters have finishing power but I think this fight will at least be competitive for a while. I like the choice of taking 1.5 rounds over the total. The price is very reasonable at UFC odds of less than 2-1 and I think the fight will at least go a couple of rounds.

UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic Card & Odds

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