The East Division continues to reign supreme in the Big Ten. No West Division team has won the Big Ten since the conference split into its current alignment after the 2013 season. Ohio State has been the dominant program in the conference, winning the Big Ten in four straight years from 2017 to 2020, and Michigan, Penn State, and Michigan State have all claimed conference titles. That’s why the Buckeyes are the overwhelming favorites to win the Big Ten in 2022, and they have three legitimate Heisman Trophy contenders on offense.
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Odds to win the Big Ten in 2022
Ohio State -230
Michigan +1000
Penn State +1200
Wisconsin +1200
Nebraska +1600
Iowa +1800
Minnesota +1800
Michigan State +2700
Purdue +3300
Indiana +4000
Maryland +10000
Northwestern +20000
Illinois +25000
Rutgers +25000
Ohio State has three of the best players in the country on offense and could set records on this side of the ball even with Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson now in the NFL. C.J. Stroud was awesome under center as a freshman, completing 71.9% of his passes for 4,435 yards (10.1 YPA) with 44 touchdowns and six interceptions. Stroud was only sacked 13 times although he wasn’t a mobile threat, highlighting this offensive line.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba was the leading receiver for the Buckeyes last year even with two Top 12 picks beside him at receiver. Smith-Njigba is seen as the No. 1 receiver in the country after hauling in 95 receptions for 1,606 yards and nine touchdowns in 2021. TreVeyon Henderson was spectacular as a true freshman, quickly showing that he was the best running back on the roster too. Henderson ran for 1,248 yards and 15 touchdowns while averaging 6.8 YPC and could also contend for the Heisman Trophy.
The big question with the Buckeyes is how the defense will fare in 2022. Ohio State was very disappointing on this side of the ball last season, but the team brought in defensive coordinator Jim Knowles from Oklahoma State to fix this unit.
Michigan is probably going to take a step backwards after its strong 2021 campaign. The Wolverines knocked off the Buckeyes in Ann Arbor on their way to the Big Ten title last year, but defensive standouts Aidan Hutchinson and David Ojabo are now in the NFL. Hutchinson and Ojabo combined to record 25 of Michigan’s 34 sacks last season, so that production will be tough to replace. To make matters worse, only four starters return on defense.
The Wolverines had a top 20 offense in terms of Offensive SP+ in 2021, and they return nine starters including quarterbacks Cade McNamara and J.J. McCarthy. Blake Corum was a more effective runner than Hassan Haskins last season, averaging 6.7 YPC, and the top five leading receivers from 2021 return as well. This offense could be even better in 2022, and that will overcome some growing pains on defense.
James Franklin is 11-11 in his last two seasons in Happy Valley. Penn State was seen as a probable bounce-back team after the way they ended 2020, but the Nittany Lions fell apart after a 5-0 start last year. They beat Wisconsin and Auburn, but they lost five of their last seven regular season games including a record nine overtime loss to Illinois at home as a 24-point favorite.
The defense has some major concerns with only four starters returning from 2021, and there are questions along the offensive line too. Sean Clifford has not played great in this offense despite having two standout receivers, so the Nittany Lions could disappoint again this season.
Wisconsin has won the West Division four times in the last eight years. The Badgers are one of three teams to win that side of the conference (with Northwestern and Iowa each winning twice), and they have one of the best ground games in the country with Braelon Allen and Chez Mellusi running the ball. Unfortunately, Graham Mertz has not lived up to the hype in his two seasons as the starter in Madison. Mertz was a four-star quarterback coming out of high school, and the hope was that he could get the Badgers over the hump.
However, he has been a middling starter in his first two seasons under center despite having an outstanding offensive line and ground game.
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