Having success on the college football gridiron can bring positive publicity to the program. It also brings poachers from other school’s looking to raid the cupboard. Welcome to today’s CFB landscape, Liberty. It’s not the bowl the Flames were hoping to play in after going 13-0 and earning a berth in last season’s Fiesta Bowl, but they’ll show up to tangle with the Buffalo Bulls in the Bahamas Bowl on Saturday, January 4. The game is scheduled to kick at 11 a.m. ET at Thomas Robinson National Stadium in Nassau on ESPN2. The biggest Liberty loss is QB Kaidon Salter, who has already agreed to play for Colorado next season forcing the line to jump the fence. Liberty opened as a 3-point favorite at most shops with Buffalo now laying 2.5-points on the line at the Crypto Sportsbook.
College Football Betting Lines
Bahamas Bowl: Liberty vs. Buffalo Betting Lines
Liberty Flames +2.5 / ML +128
Buffalo Bulls -2.5 / ML -145
Over / Under 50.5
Liberty shocked a lot of folks last season earning the G5 bid to the New Year’s Six dance. Getting slammed by Oregon in the Fiesta Bowl didn’t seem to affect them too much as they started 2024 with five straight wins. However, their 17-game regular season winning streak came to an end in the unlikeliest of ways. Going off as a 26.5-point favorite against winless Kennesaw State in Week 9, the Flames were upset 27-24. It was a weird time for the program with a couple of byes and a cancelled game giving the team just one game in a month. The game against KSU was their first after the lengthy respite.
Still, the Flames won eight games despite only playing 11 contests. That’s a record most teams would take in an instant. However, the bar was raised to a nearly unachievable level with the success in 2023 and because the team failed to clear it a mass exodus of talent ensued. Salter is the biggest name to jump ship. He helped the team average more than 30 points while producing 434.5 yards of offense per game. He threw for nearly 1,900 yards with 15 touchdowns but was also part of ground game that ranked second nationally by amassing 579 rush yards.
There is a steep drop from Salter to backup Ryan Burger and another decline from Burger to Nate Hampton. With Burger in concussion protocol ahead of this game there’s a chance Hampton is the only QB available. The offensive line also had three starters enter the portal leaving the offense that takes the field on Saturday a shell of what we saw during the year.
First-year coach Pete Lembo has the Buffalo program on the right track taking a squad that won just three games last season and going 8-4. When it’s all said and done few will remember that Liberty wasn’t at full strength but the Bulls have a chance for a signature win and enter the game on a nice run. The Bulls won their final four games going 3-1 ATS behind an offense that averaged 43 points in that span. The team struggled earlier in the season and ranks just 97th in total offense and 29th in scoring.
The emergence of CJ Ogbonna has a lot to do with the recent offensive production. He has thrown 11 of his 19 touchdown passes in the last four games with three scoring strikes in each of the last three. Ogbonna also had eight TDs on the ground and was the team’s second leading rusher. The group wasn’t overpowering by any stretch but they hit a groove late in the campaign taking down several weak defensive clubs and they don’t make a lot of mistakes.
Buffalo has run the ball effectively all season and could take advantage of a Liberty front that ranks in the bottom half nationally in run defense. And that was before starting tackle Bryce Dixon left the program. Again this is a chance at a big win against a quality program and Buffalo will take advantage of the Liberty defections. Teams can overcome the loss of a few players but the Flames are among the leaders in opt-outs leaving them for the taking.
Bahamas Bowl: Liberty vs. Buffalo Same Game Parlay Picks
Buffalo -2.5
Liberty / Buffalo UNDER 50.5
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