No program has seen a bigger shakeup this offseason than Oklahoma. Lincoln Riley left Norman for USC in November, and he took starting quarterback Caleb Williams and several other players with him to Los Angeles. Riley took some of Oklahoma’s top recruits from this last cycle too, leaving a very bitter taste in the mouths of fans that had rooted for the Sooners over the last five years.
Brent Venables is the new head coach of Oklahoma. Venables was the defensive coordinator here under Bob Stoops from 1999 to 2011 before leaving for Clemson. He brought in Jeff Lebby to run the offense, and there will be much more focus on defense than there has been here in recent years.
Regular Season Wins for the Oklahoma Sooners
Over 9.5 +118
Under 9.5 -138
Oklahoma has won 10 or more games in 18 of the last 22 seasons. The Sooners have been the team to beat in the Big 12 for most of the last two decades, and they claimed the Big 12 Championship for six straight seasons from 2015 to 2020. For the first time in several years, they are not an odds-on favorite to win the conference championship ahead of this season though as there are serious questions about this team given the shakeup this offseason. Additionally, there may be some discontent in the locker room after assistant coach Cale Gundy resigned in early August.
Roster
UCF transfer Dillon Gabriel will start the season under center after both Caleb Williams and Spencer Rattler transferred this offseason. Gabriel only played in three games last year before suffering a season-ending injury, but he was sharp for the Knights in 2019 and 2020. He has previous experience in Jeff Lebby’s offense, so he shouldn’t have much trouble with the scheme.
Gabriel has some very talented receivers to work with in Marvin Mims and Theo Wease. Mims is the leading returning receiver for the Sooners, and he averaged 22.0 YPR in 2022. Meanwhile, Wease missed all of last year due to injury, but he was the second leading receiver on the Sooners behind Mims in 2020.
Eric Gray will be the primary running back for Oklahoma, and he ran for 412 yards (5.3 YPC) and two touchdowns last season. The offensive line is very much a work in progress though as five recent transfers are expected to either start or see a lot of time. Cal transfer McKade Mettauer and TCU transfer Tyler Guyton both joined the team this year, while Robert Congel, Chris Murray, and Wanya Morris all joined the Sooners prior to last season.
Only five starters return on defense, but this might be addition by subtraction given what we have seen from Oklahoma over the last few years. Venables is going to bring in guys that he knows can play in his system, so there could be a lot of turnover in the first season of his scheme.
The secondary might be the strength of the team even though four sophomores are projected to start. Woodi Washington, Billy Bowman, Jaden Davis, and Davon Graham all saw a lot of time on the field last season. The front seven is more of a concern though. Tulane transfer Jeffery Johnson is a player to watch in the middle of the defensive line, and fellow Green Wave transfer TD Roof could see a lot of action too.
Schedule
Oklahoma should have no trouble with its first two opponents, giving this young team time to come together under Venables. The schedule picks up after that though with a potentially tough road game at Nebraska before Oklahoma opens Big 12 play against Kansas State. The Sooners benefit from playing the toughest teams in the conference at home this season, and their toughest true road game is at Iowa State.
Prediction
This is going to be a growing year for Oklahoma, but the schedule works in its favor, so the Sooners have a good chance of getting to 10 wins. The Sooners are unlikely to compete for the College Football Playoff, but they have to be considered the favorite in the Big 12 since they are hosting Kansas State, Baylor, and Oklahoma State.
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