The most overrated program in college football over the last 12 years has been Texas. The Longhorns have not finished the season with a higher ranking than their preseason ranking since 2008, and they have just one 10-win season since they lost to Alabama in the 2009 BCS National Championship Game. Although Texas went 5-7 and 3-6 in Big 12 play last year (including an embarrassing home loss to Kansas), the Longhorns are once again being heralded as one of the favorites to win the Big 12. Obviously, hope springs eternal in Austin, Texas as the Longhorns haven’t won a conference title since 2009.
Regular Season Wins for the Texas Longhorns
Over 8.5 +101
Under 8.5 -121
Steve Sarkisian fell flat in his first year in charge of Texas. The Longhorns lost six straight games after blowing a lead against Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry. Their defense allowed 27 points or more in nine of their 12 games, and the deficiencies on that side of the ball must be addressed after Texas finished 86th in Defensive SP+ in 2021.
Roster
Texas might have one of the best offenses in the nation in 2022. Highly touted Quinn Ewers is set to start under center after one season sitting behind C.J. Stroud at Ohio State, and he would probably be the No. 1 quarterback for every program outside of Ohio State and Alabama. Ewers was the 247 Sports’ No. 1 overall recruit in the Class of 2021, and he has reportedly thrived in Sarkisian’s system thus far in practice. There is a big difference between practice and game action though as we saw with Spencer Rattler and D.J. Uiagalelei.
The Longhorns do have a proven running back that is a Heisman Trophy candidate in Bijan Robinson. He thrived as a true freshman in 2020, running for 703 yards (8.2 YPC) and four touchdowns, and he ran for 1,127 yards (5.8 YPC) and 11 touchdowns in 2021. Robinson suffered a season-ending elbow injury in the overtime loss to Kansas last season, but he was still a First Team All-Big 12 selection.
Three starters along the offensive line return from last year, and blue-chip recruit Kelvin Banks could be an immediate starter up front. Texas allowed 26 sacks in 2021, so this offensive line is a bit of a concern coming into this season.
These receivers are some of the best in the Big 12 though. Xavier Worthy was a First Team All-Big 12 selection as a true freshman last year with 62 receptions for 981 yards and 12 touchdowns. Jordan Whittington proved to be a solid option in his first season as a starter, and three transfers should make a big impact. Tarique Milton from Iowa State, Isaiah Neyor from Wyoming, and Agiye Hall from Alabama are all expected to see plenty of action in this offense. Tight end Jahleel Billingsley transferred in from Alabama too.
Pete Kwiatkowski needs this defense to show considerable improvement in his second season in charge. The Longhorns really struggled up front in 2021, allowing 202 YPG on the ground while only recording 20 sacks.
That led to Texas hitting the transfer portal hard in the offseason. The Longhorns brought in Diamonte Tucker-Dorsey from James Madison and Ovie Oghoufo from Notre Dame to give the front seven a real boost. There are some other talented pieces already in place like Moro Ojomo, Keondre Coburn, and DeMarvion Overshown.
The secondary needs Anthony Cook and D’Shawn Jamison to stay healthy. They are remarkably thin and inexperienced aside from Cook and Jamison, so things could get hairy in a hurry if either player goes down.
Schedule
We will see just how much Texas has improved in the offseason in Week 2. The Longhorns welcome Alabama to DKR, and the Crimson Tide have made a habit of hammering non-conference foes early in the season. Texas shouldn’t have much trouble in its other two non-conference games, so the Longhorns are likely to be 4-1 heading into the Red River Rivalry. Road games against Oklahoma State and Kansas State aren’t easy though, and the Longhorns must close out their season against Big 12 champion Baylor.
Prediction
The pieces are in place for Texas to have a turnaround season. However, the turnaround won’t be as big as some are expecting. The Longhorns will be better than last year, but an 8-4 or 7-5 record is likely in the cards.
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