Lincoln Riley is looking to take the Pac 12 by storm. USC has had a very difficult time reaching the heights that Pete Carroll took the Trojans to in the mid-2000s, but Riley has the potential to change all that in a hurry. Unlike Lane Kiffin, Steve Sarkisian, and Clay Helton, Riley has already proven himself on a national stage, dominating the Big 12 during his time with Oklahoma. The Trojans enter the year as slight favorites to win the Pac 12 ahead of Utah and Oregon, as expectations are high at Heritage Hall.
Regular Season Wins for the USC Trojans
Over 9.5 -114
Under 9.5 -106
USC hasn’t won nine games in a season since 2017. However, Riley has won at least nine games in every season since he has been a head coach, and he was 55-10 in his five seasons in charge of Oklahoma. The Sooners finished the season ranked in the top ten every year under Riley, and the Trojans would love if he could have similar success in his first year.
Roster
The Trojans went 4-8 last year, but they are expected to turn things around quickly despite the loss of standout receiver Drake London. USC hit the transfer portal harder than almost any other team in the country, and Riley was able to bring star quarterback Caleb Williams with him from Oklahoma.
Williams began the year as the backup quarterback behind Spencer Rattler, but he emerged as the best option for the Sooners against Texas. He ended up completing 64.5% of his passes for 1,912 yards (9.1 YPA) with 21 touchdowns and four interceptions. Williams showcased a lot of mobility too, running for 442 yards and six touchdowns. That dual-threat ability is highly coveted with the reliance on RPOs, and Williams has the potential to post big numbers given his familiarity in this system.
USC did not have good running backs last season, but the Trojans were able to take a good running back from two of their biggest Pac 12 rivals. Travis Dye transferred to LA from Oregon this offseason, and Austin Jones has joined the program from Stanford. Dye ran for 1,271 yards and 16 touchdowns for the Ducks last season, and he was a significant threat in the passing game. Meanwhile, Jones was one of the top running backs on Standford the last two years and was also a reliable option as a receiver.
The biggest splash the Trojans made outside of Williams was in adding Jordan Addison from Pittsburgh. Addison was a First Team All-American with Kenny Pickett throwing him the ball last season, but he decided to head to greener pastures with Pickett in the NFL. Mario Williams also joined from Oklahoma, and Tahj Washington was a solid No. 2 receiver for USC in 2021.
This offensive line figures to be solid with four returning starters up front. Brett Neilon and Andrew Voorhees are seniors with a lot of experience, and tackles Jonah Monheim and Courtland Ford are talented youngsters. Bobby Haskins transfers in from Virginia to provide depth.
Riley also scored a big win in securing defensive coordinator Alex Grinch’s services. Grinch had done a decent job of turning around Oklahoma’s defense, and he should help USC on this side of the ball. This could be a tough first year though as only three starters return on defense.
Tuli Tuipulotu is the player to watch on defense. He was a First Team All-Pac 12 selection at nose tackle last year, and he had a lot of success getting pressure on the quarterback. That should help transfer pass rushers Romello Height and Eric Gentry pick up sacks.
The back seven is a big concern though. Grinch brought in a lot of transfers to try to plug holes, and that lack of chemistry has the potential to be a huge problem early in the season.
Schedule
USC hosts all three of its non-conference opponents this year. The Trojans don’t have to play Oregon or Washington in conference play, and that gives their conference title hopes a boost. However, a road trip to Utah is going to be extremely difficult given how the Utes have dominated them over the trenches in recent years, and Stanford tends to give this team problems early in the season. Fresno State and Notre Dame are difficult non-conference foes as well.
Prediction
This is a manageable schedule, so hopes are high in Lincoln Riley’s first year. However, it’s wise to tamp down expectations. Top coaches Jimbo Fisher, Kirby Smart, Nick Saban, and Dabo Swinney all struggled in their first seasons with their current teams. Not one of those coaches was able to win 10 games in their first season, so it’s fair to say we are asking too much of Riley.
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